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A Quick Look at Some Recent GOP Presidential Polls

by | Oct 27, 2011

Cain and Romney during a Republican debate

By Dave Andrusko

As hard as it is to believe, in less than 10 weeks (January 3) the selection process for the Republican nominee for President begins with the Iowa caucuses. With that in mind, a  CNN/Time/ORC International poll released yesterday showed that among registered Republicans former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney” has a sizable lead in two states: New Hampshire, the first primary state, and Florida,” according to Michael Muskal of the Los Angeles Times. “He has a narrow lead in Iowa [24% to 21%]  and South Carolina [25% to 23%], where businessman Herman Cain is breathing down his neck in what is a statistical tie.

On the other hand, two national polls show Cain 4% ahead of Romney—25% to 2l% (CBS-New York Times) and 24% to 20% ( Fox News )—among Republican primary voters.

Clearly “fluidity” is the operative word. As Muskal put it

But beyond the horse-race numbers is a GOP electorate that remains fluid, impressionable and unconvinced. In no state does the number of those who say they will definitely support their choice for the GOP nomination exceed a one in three ratio. Indeed, in two states majorities said they might change their minds: Iowa at 62% and  South Carolina at 56%, while Florida was at 50%. New Hampshire has the highest number who said they will definitely support their choice, 32%. But even there, 48%, nearly half, said they might change their minds.

A closer look at the  four states the CNN/Time/ORC International poll surveyed reveals

  • Iowa: Romney 24%, Cain 21%, Rep. Ron Paul 12%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 10% (the other candidates were in single digits).
  • New Hampshire: Romney 40%, Cain 13%, Paul 12%.
  • South Carolina: Romney 25%, Cain 23%, Paul 12%, Perry 11%.
  • Florida: Romney 30%, Cain 18%, Gingrich and Perry 9%.

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