NRL News

As the Week Ends How the Republican Candidates for President are Faring

by | Nov 19, 2011

By Dave Andrusko

Republican presidential candidates former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and businessman Herman Cain pose before a Republican presidential debate at Oakland University in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

As the week ends, a quick overview of three polls on the prospects of various Republican candidates for President. As we all know these numbers can (and have already) turn on a dime. But this week has clearly been a bonanza for former Speaker Newt Gingrich.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Gingrich and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for all practical purposes tied nationally: Gingrich at 23% (essentially double what he had three weeks ago); Romney at 22%; businessman Herman Cain at 15%; Rep. Ron Paul received 8% to 7% for Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

However indicating the race’s continuing volatility, 60% of these Republican primary voters said they may change their mind.

Continuing the string of good news for Gingrich is that he is now in a virtual statistical tie with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. Since the states are adjoining it’s been assumed that Romney would do very well. And for months Romney had a comfortable lead over everyone. In October he was 31% ahead of Gingrich: 41% to 10%.

However the poll of likely Republican primary voters, conducted by Magellan Strategies, shows Romney at 29% and  Gingrich at 27% (and rising). There are two other candidates in double digits: Paul at 15%, and Cain at 10%.

Romney is ahead among undeclared voters, Gingrich among self-identified conservative voters.

How about Iowa, where the first caucuses take place in January? Under the headline “Rasmussen poll shows Gingrich with double-digit lead in Iowa,” we read yesterday that “Among likely caucus-goers, Gingrich now leads Romney 32/19.”

Rasmussen also found in a survey of 700 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants that Cain garnered 13% of the vote; Paul drew 10%; and both Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann each carried 6%.

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Categories: Politics