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Rep. Paul Surging in Iowa, two new polls say

Dec 20, 2011

By Dave Andrusko

(Left to Right) Former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Ron Paul, Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney

Last Friday, the last day of the week,  I ran a pair of columns, which can be summarized as (a) the Newt Gingrich Express appears to have slowed down; and (b) it would be wise to keep an eye open for a possible surprise in the January 3 Iowa caucuses and/or the January 10 New Hampshire primary. As we wrap of the first day’s stories for this week, it could be summary as “more of the same.”

But first a quick look at the national picture. Using Gallup’s daily tracking survey as a measure, former Speaker Gingrich’s margin over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has dropped from 15% (37% to 22% at the beginning of the month) to 2% (24% to 22%). Rep. Ron Paul has risen to 11%.

CNN’s poll today found Gingrich and Romney tied at 28% among Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP as their choice for their party’s nominee. However over a third said they hadn’t made up their minds and 56% said they might change their minds!

Back to Iowa: There continues to be a continuing reshuffling (yet again!) in Iowa. There is much skepticism about the results from a Democratic pollster, PPP, which found Rep. Paul in the lead with 23%, to 20% for Romney, 14% for Gingrich, and 10% each for former Senator Rick Santorum,  Rep. Michele Bachmann, and  Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

However another poll, by Insider Advantage, also found Paul in the lead with 24%, to 18% for Romney, 16% for Perry, 13% for Gingrich, and 10% for Bachmann.

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Categories: Politics