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Topsy Turvy GOP Presidential Polls, Obama’s Personal Popularity Hits New Low

Dec 16, 2011

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-Life former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has moved up in New Hampshire polls

Time ran out on me yesterday, which meant I was unable to offer our [almost] daily look at the latest polling data. But that also means we have the latest from Scott Rasmussen which shows that former Speaker Newt Gingrich’s lead in Iowa has not only melted away but vanished. And then, late last night, Suffolk University released a poll for New Hampshire which showed Gingrich and former Gov. Jon Huntsman gaining on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who still leads comfortably.

The Rasmussen Poll may or may not be any more significant than any of the many other movements in the ever-changing GOP presidential picture. But as Ed Morrissey points out today, Rasmussen was one of the first pollsters who documented the Gingrich wave which on November 15 had him surging ahead of Romney, 32% to 19%.

But according to today’s Rasmussen Poll of 750 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants, Romney is first with 23% (an increase of 4% in the last month), then Gingrich with 20% (a drop of 12%), and Rep. Ron Paul narrowly behind at 18% (an 8% increase for Paul in one month). The Iowa caucuses take place Tuesday, January 3. It is likely no accident that the change follows a wave of highly-charged anti-Gingrich ads produced by his rivals.

Romney remains ahead in New Hampshire, according to the Suffolk University Poll, with 38% to 20% for Gingrich (up 6% from a month ago), with Huntsman now third with 13%. Paul, who is rising in Iowa,  has fallen to 8% here. Huntsman improvement, according to the director of Suffolk University’s polling center, is attributable to his support among Independents who are eligible to vote in New Hampshire’s primary.

That’s two parts of the equation. Gallup released a nationwide poll Wednesday that found Gingrich still ahead among Republican registered voters,  31% to 22% over Romney, a drop in one week of 6% for Gingrich and no change for Romney. “No opinion” grew from 14% to 19%.

According to Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones

“Since Gallup began Daily tracking of national Republican nomination preferences last week, Gingrich has averaged a 12-point advantage over Romney, with a high of 15 points in Gallup’s initial report based on Dec. 1-5 interviewing. The current 9-point tracking lead for Gingrich is the smallest yet for the former speaker of the House.

“Gingrich has come under increasing attack from his rivals in debates, on the campaign trail, and in television ads since he became the front-runner this month, which may be chipping away at his support, now at 31% after being 37% in the initial tracking report.”

Finally, there are President Obama’s standings which continue to decline. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll found “Forty-nine percent of Americans now express an unfavorable opinion of Obama, while 48 percent view him favorably — the first time his negative number has exceeded his positive one in this most basic measure of personal popularity,” according to Gary Langer.

“And then there are views of the economy, which make both look almost good by comparison,” Langer added. “Obama’s favorable rating has plummeted by 31 points from his career high, 79 percent, days before he took office.”

However, according to this poll, conducted by Langer Research Associates,  Gingrich had the same unfavorable number as Obama (48%) but a favorable score (35%) that is13 points lower.

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Categories: Politics