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Romney and Santorum Tie in Iowa Caucuses, Paul Finishes Third, on to New Hampshire and South Carolina

Jan 5, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

(Left to right) Rep. Ron Paul, former Gov. Mitt Romney, former Senator Rick Santorum

Be interesting to know how many die-hards there were like me who stayed up until after 2:00 am EST to learn that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had pulled out a last-minute win in the Iowa caucuses over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by the incredibly small margin of eight votes (30,015 votes to 30,007). Each won 25%.

Rep. Ron Paul finished third Tuesday with 21% followed by former Speaker Newt Gingrich (13%), Texas Gov. Rick Perry (10%), and Rep. Michele Bachmann (5%). Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman did not actively campaign in Iowa. Mrs. Bachmann suspended her campaign today, saying, “Last night the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice, so I have decided to stand aside.”

Some of what Gov. Perry said led observers to conclude he, too, would be dropping out. However Perry tweeted today to say he was going to compete next in South Carolina, which takes place. (You can watch videos of last night’s post-caucus candidate remarks at http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2012/01/04/videos-watch-post-caucus-speeches-from-candidates.)

The tenth of a percentage margin by which Romney beat Santorum is far closer than the previously most competitive Republican caucus results. In 1980, George Bush beat Ronald Reagan by 2%.

An incredibly exciting night, turnout  was the highest in the history of the Iowa Republican caucuses. It was marred only by snafus which kept the final count from being known for hours.

Santorum came on like gangbusters the last week, racing from single-digits in polls to a statistical dead-heat. Last night’s photo finish in many ways was unsurprising. One candidate after another took what appeared to be a commanding lead, only to fall back.

That volatility lasted until the very end. One in six voters surveyed as they arrived at the caucuses last night said they had decided which candidate to back just that day!

Romney, Santorum, and Paul, not surprisingly, drew on voters with different priorities. To borrow from entrance polls (as reported by the Washington Post):

“Santorum took 32 percent of born-again Christians but just 14 percent of everyone else, while Romney took just 14 percent of born-agains and 38 percent of everyone else.

“While Santorum took 35 percent of voters who described themselves as ‘very conservative,’ Romney took 14 percent. Among those who called themselves moderate or liberal, Romney beat Santorum 35 percent to 8 percent.

“Santorum took 57 percent of those who said abortion was their most important issue, and more than one-third of the vote from both those seeking the most conservative candidate and those seeking the candidate with ‘strong moral character.’

“Romney took 34 percent among those who said the economy was their top issue and 49 percent who said they were looking for the candidate who can beat Obama — far outpacing his rivals on both of those measures.”

All eyes of course are on New Hampshire, whose primary is next Tuesday, but no less so than South Carolina’s “First in the South” primary January 21.

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Categories: Politics