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Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado Next

Feb 8, 2012

Pro-Life Former Senator Rick Santorum

Romney Carries Nevada with 50%

By Dave Andrusko

The results from Saturday’s Nevada GOP caucuses did not show up officially until one o’clock in the morning on Monday, understandably leading to a barrage of criticism. While the results were never in doubt—former Gov. Mitt Romney was going to prevail—the battle for second place and whether Romney met “expectations” were.

Romney did meet the media threshold for success: he got exactly 50%. (He’d won 51% in 2008.) And while finishing third, Rep. Ron Paul did garner 19% of the vote to former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich’s 21%. Former Senator Rick Santorum carried 10%.

Today is the first multi-state voting day: caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado, a primary in Missouri.

Unlike Nevada, the poll numbers in Minnesota suggest a very competitive contest. The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Santorum with 33%, Romney next at 24%, Gingrich third with 22%, and Paul at 20%. Having not won, or placed second, since he carried the Iowa caucuses, it is only to state the obvious that Santorum could very much use a victory in Minnesota. Independents are allowed to vote. Romney carried Minnesota in 2008.

Pro-Life former Massachussets Gov. Mitt Romney

Missouri holds a primary today, described as a “beauty contest,” because the results do not count in delegate selection. The state holds a separate caucus for that in March. And Gingrich is not on the ballot, which will change the outcome.

PPP’s results for Missouri show another opening for Santorum. That poll found Santorum with a thirteen point lead over Romney—45% to 32%-with 19% for Paul. Romney finished third in 2008.

Romney is considered the favorite in Colorado. PPP’s results have Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich third with 21%, and Paul with 13%. Voting is open only to registered Republicans. In 2008 Romney carried Colorado.

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Categories: Politics