NRL News

Close, close races on eve of ten state “Super Tuesday” Primary

by | Mar 6, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul

With polling data pouring in over the weekend and today, by the time you read this post there may have been further shifts in the “Super Tuesday” polling. Ten states are holding GOP presidential contests:  Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. As the New York Times put it, “437 delegates are up for grabs, more than all of this season’s nominating contests combined.”

However most of the attention has focused on Ohio, a classic “swing” state. 

In a big shift over the past ten days

“The Ohio Republican presidential primary remains too close to call, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the momentum, and 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters, to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.”

A week ago, Sen. Santorum was up seven points in the Quinnipiac University poll.

Rasmussen Reports has Romney up one point among likely Republican primary voters—32% to 31%–in a survey taken Sunday. Likewise PPP has Romney ahead by a single point—37% to 36%.

In sharp contrast, ARG’s new poll (taken over the weekend) has Romney up 35% to 28% for Santorum.

In Tennessee Santorum has a narrow lead—an average  of 2.6 points—in  three polls. In the PPP poll, Santorum is at 34% to 29% for Romney and 27% for former Speaker Newt Gingrich. He is ahead by 4% in Rasmussen’s survey—34% to 30%–with Gingrich at 18%. But Romney is ahead by one point in a poll conducted by WeAskAmerica—30% to 29%–over both Santorum and Gingrich.

In his home state of Georgia, Gingrich is well ahead—by margins ranging from 10% to 26%–in five separate polls. With one exception, Romney is well ahead of Santorum for second place.

Meanwhile in Virginia, where neither Santorum nor Gingrich made it on the ballot, Romney will win easily. An NBC/Marist College released Sunday found Romney leading Rep. Ron Paul 69% to 26%.

A Washington Times/JZ Analytics’ poll of Republicans nationwide found Romney and Santorum in a virtual dead-heat—Romney with 25.5% to 25.3% for Santorum. Coming in third was Paul with 13.5% with Gingrich at 11%. Just how volatile the contest remains comes across clearly by the percentage who weren’t sure who they would vote for.

In mid-January, the time of the last Times/JZ Analytics, 12% were unsure. Now it’s up to 21%.

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Categories: Politics