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What to take away from current Presidential polling numbers

Mar 6, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-Abortion President Barack Obama

As mentioned in “NRLC Warnings Prove Prophetic,” I received many, many responses to the stories we wrote last week which attested to just how far the anti-life group is willing to go. What I didn’t mention was the equally  encouraging number of you who were not snookered by the mini-wave of stories arguing that Obama is already on cruise-control to a second term.

On the night before “Super Tuesday” (see “Close, close races on eve of ten state ‘Super Tuesday’ Primary”), in which the pro-life Republican candidates continue to come closer to finding a nominee, it’s worth a quick additional explanation as we end National Right to Life News Today for Monday. (I am using a piece by David Paul Kuhn at realclearpolitics.com as the basis. It’s not perfect, but it is useful.)

Mr. Kuhn makes a number of points in challenging the notion that Republicans cannot defeat President Obama. To name just four

·        Polls are finicky, hardly predictive. “Eight years ago, in early March 2004, John Kerry was ahead of George W. Bush in the Gallop poll, 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Kerry led nearly every poll in July of that year. And we know how that went.”

·        Kuhn’s argument is if there is a lot of emphasis on the “economy,” you have to be sure you’re talking about the “right” part of the economy (e.g., perhaps the price of gas will count more than the stock market). I mention this because reporting so often winds up being about what the electorate is NOT moved by.

·        “Obama is not a strong incumbent by historic measure. His job approval rating is relatively steady in the Gallup poll. It averaged 45 percent over January and February. Jimmy Carter’s approval rating averaged 55 percent over those same two months in 1980. And, again, we know how that went.”

·        As illustrated by Obama’s own numbers, “the modern presidential electorate has secure floors. It fortified Obama’s approval rating during his hardest times.” That is a given upon which the Republican nominee will build.

Let me add two other considerations. It would be hard to exaggerate how different the picture will look after the Republicans choose a nominee. There is a natural rhythm to election coverage. For now, because the Democrats have their candidate, all the attention is paid to the harsh back and forth between GOP candidates jockeying for the nomination. Once it’s Romney/Santorum/Gingrich/Paul v. Obama, that will level out.

Likewise, the attention now is on how allegedly “weak” the Republican candidates are, but that is almost always the way the out-of-power’s field is characterized. Once the air clears, all the reasons people have to oppose Obama will be easy to see.

At that point in time, guess what? We will again be reminded just how weak President Obama actually is.

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Categories: Politics