NRL News

Romney Leads Obama in Two National Polls

by | Apr 17, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-Life Mitt Romney, Pro-Abortion Barack Obama

A split decision today in three polls for hypothetical matchups between President Barack Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney, with Romney carrying two.

In Gallup’s “inaugural” poll, Romney leads Obama 47% to 45% among registered voters in tracking results for April 11-15.  Romney also enjoys a  6 point advantage among Independents.

Romney is also ahead 47% to 44% in Rasmussen Report’s  daily poll of  Likely Voters.

In stark contrast, the CNN/ORC International poll has Obama up by 9 point—52% to 43%–among registered voters. Obama’s advantage among women is  16 points, and five  among Independents.

Possible explanations?

CNN’s poll was conducted April 13-15—a two day shorter span that Gallup’s. In addition Gallup’s sample was double the size–2,265 registered voters vs. 1,015 adults including 910 registered voters for CNN.

There are two other results that jump out. The first is from Rasmussen;

“A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 36% would choose the Democrat instead. This is the largest gap between the two parties since the beginning of 2011. It also doubles the gap found a week ago when the Republican led by five points, 45% to 40%.”

According to Allahpundit,

“The GOP hasn’t led on the generic ballot by more than six points since November and has occasionally slipped to within a point or two of Democrats since then. (They actually trailed the Dems briefly in January.)”

The second is from Gallup. As we’ve discussed dozens of times, the rancor that is part of a competitive nominating process tends to fade away—and usually relatively quickly.

President Obama has benefited from not having a primary fight. By contrast Republicans have gone at one another with intensity.

But Gallup notes

“The race breaks down into the expected patterns by party, with 90%  of Democrats supporting Obama, and 90% of Republicans supporting Romney. The Republican results show that despite the rancor and divisiveness of the Republican campaign, the vast majority of Republicans are backing Romney in the head-to-head battle with Obama, as they have in ballot tests earlier this year.”

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Categories: Politics