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Another state “in play?” Plus, increasingly, electorate blames Obama for the weak economy

by | Jul 23, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-abortion President Barack Obama

I hail from Minnesota and spent my first 35 years there. If I know anything about the politics of the state (of which I was thoroughly enmeshed for a decade), it’s that you simply never know what state voters will do. When it comes to races for governor and (often) for Senate, they are an unpredictable lot for a host of (largely) cultural reasons.

But up until very recently, no one seriously talked about pro-life Mitt Romney having a chance against pro-abortion President Barack Obama. After all, the last Republican presidential candidate to carry the Gopher state was Richard Nixon!

However that conversation’s just started, thanks to a poll conducted last week by local ABC affiliate KSTP and Survey America. Obama is ahead 46% to 40%, but this does not do justice to the winds that are blowing in Mr. Romney’s favor. (http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2699493.shtml?cat=1).

For example, on the one hand there are measures on the November ballot that are very popular among the electorate in general and Republicans in particular and which are likely to redound to the benefit of Republicans. On the other hand, the Democratic Senate incumbent will likely win by 20+points, meaning there will be no close Senate contest to drive up Democratic turnout.

Obama’s advantage is explained entirely by his advantage among female voters; they are tied among men and Romney leads slightly among Independents.

Other unfavorable poll results come from a survey conducted by The Hill newspaper.  Sheldon Alberts writes

“Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.

“It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy. Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. Twenty percent point the finger at Wall Street, and 18 percent cite former President George W. Bush.

“The results highlight the reelection challenge Obama faces amid dissatisfaction with his first-term performance on the economy.

“The poll, conducted for The Hill by Pulse Opinion Research, found 53 percent of voters say Obama has taken the wrong actions and has slowed the economy down. Forty-two percent said he has taken the right actions to revive the economy, while six percent said they were not sure.’

By the way, off the top of my head, that is the smallest number I can recall who attributed the blame to former President Bush, which is, of course, awful news for President Obama.

Finally, there is the “undecided” voter.  The Washington Post reports today that  a poll conducted by the Post and ABC News found

“Just 6 percent of Americans say there is a good chance they will change their mind about their pick in the 2012 presidential race — a reflection of the divided nature of American politics and the few voters who are actually persuadable.”

In addition,

“less than one in five voters says there is any chance at all that he or she will change his or her mind. …

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Categories: Obama