By Dave Andrusko
As people far more skilled than I am in reading polls have noted, the one point advantage (47% to 46%) that pro-life Mitt Romney enjoys over pro-abortion President Barack Obama is actually the least important number. It’s the response of registered voters to various specific issues—and Obama’s declining fortunes with Independents—that tell the real story.
As we always do in these stories, let me offer the information in bullet points.
· 47% to 46%. Three months ago the same CBS News/New York Times poll had them tied at 46%.
Obama’s favorability with Independents is almost unbelievably bad : 28% favorable to 52% unfavorable. Romney’s numbers are 32% favorable to 31% unfavorable. No wonder the President’s entire campaign is built on assaulting Romney.
· Which might explain why to the question of whether Obama has fulfilled his promise to deliver positive change, just 28% believe he has, as compared to 58% who say he hasn’t, and 7% who say he has delivered change that has been bad for the country.
· How about the President’s “signature” domestic issue? A paltry 36% approve of ObamaCare, while 61% want it partially or entirely repealed.
Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating is still well below 50%–it’s 44 % to be exact–while 46% disapprove. His approval rating on the economy has dropped five points since April. It now stands at 39%. (Worse yet just 24% think the economy is improving.)
· Two other numbers. Read CBS News’s explanation of one question in the poll carefully: “Both candidates have net unfavorable ratings. Forty-eight percent of registered voters view the president unfavorably, while 36 percent view him favorably. Romney is viewed unfavorably by 36 percent and favorably by 32 percent. Nearly one in three say they do not yet have an opinion about the presumptive Republican nominee.” What does that tell you? The President favorability rating is a minus 12. Mr. Romney is only a minus 4. Likewise a lot of people don’t have an opinion of Mr. Romney—still another reason for President Obama’s relentless attacks.
· Finally, a different but related index of the President’s prospects.
A new Quinnipiac University poll of Virginia finds Obama and Romney tied at 44%. What’s the trend? In March Obama led by 8 points. In June he led by 5 points. Now he’s no better than even.