By Dave Andrusko
So much is going on in so many different realms even a Monday through Saturday publishing schedule for NRL News Today means there’s lots left to talk about. Take, for example, the latest on the presidential contest between pro-life former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and pro-abortion President Barack Obama.
There is what amounts to ephemera—news/polls/surveys that amount to little more than the push and pull of the past few days–and then there are the foundational trends that likely will change very little. And most of those bode ill for President Obama.
Here’s the lead from a story in The Hill newspaper:
“Two-thirds of likely voters say President Obama has kept his 2008 campaign promise to change America — but it’s changed for the worse, according to a sizable majority.
“A new poll for The Hill found 56 percent of likely voters believe Obama’s first term has transformed the nation in a negative way, compared to 35 percent who believe the country has changed for the better under his leadership.
“The results signal broad voter unease with the direction the nation has taken under Obama’s leadership and present a major challenge for the incumbent Democrat as he seeks reelection this fall.”
And then there is this:
“Strikingly, 1-in-5 Democrats say they feel Obama has changed the United States for the worse.”
Given who supported Obama in 2008, it’s very noteworthy that the naysayers include Independents (56% to 31%), 18-39 year olds (55% to 36%) and low-income voters (making under $20,000, 59% to 32%; $20,000 to $40,000, 51% to 42%).
Then there is the electoral map where, understandably, most attention alights on those 12 “swing states” (those not firmly in either camp) where Obama currently leads Romney 47% to 45% among registered voters. This is important but must be taken in the context of what Jay Cost, writing on Real Clear Politics this morning, nicely summarizes. They include important items that don’t get talked about much. They include:
· Obama is unpopular (consistently under 50%), particularly in his handling of the big issues, such as the economy.
· Impressions of the President appear to have solidified. He’s been under 50%, Cost notes, for most of the last 30 months.
· The economy is hurting the President.
· “Romney will have an opportunity to define himself,” something that will likely take place, in Cost’s opinion, at the Republican National Convention next month.
Bear these key facts in mind when you read or hear the “mainstream media” handicap the race.
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