By Dave Andrusko
NRL News Today for this week ends with our semi-regular update of the race for President. As is our habit, let me offer a few observations in bullet point form:
· I’m mention this again, even though I have thrice already this week: The Obama re-election campaign is throwing a stream of mud at pro-life former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, hoping at least one will besmirch him in the voters’ eyes. But they are so outlandish, indeed so repulsive, that even the ever-compliant “mainstream media” is getting up on its hind legs.
· The impact of the Supreme Court ruling upholding virtually all of ObamaCare. The Quinnipiac Poll found that results make 27% of people less likely to vote for Obama as opposed to just 12% who said it would make them “more likely.” Among Independents the margin was 27% to 9%. And among Catholics, 35% to 10%–a whopping 25 point difference!
· Obama may be close to maxing out. The National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar concluded this week that “The polling shows that voters have made up their minds about Obama, with many of the undecided voters still learning about Romney. They’ve gotten their first impressions from the early Obama television ads, but Romney will have his chance to tout his positives with the August convention and upcoming debates. There’s a reason why the Obama campaign is trying to disqualify Romney early on. Because if they don’t score an early knockout, it becomes harder to win over the late deciders as the election approaches.
· There are problems aplenty in the Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday, which we’ve talked about several times. But there are enough nuggets that you almost feel you’ve struck it rich. Writing yesterday, the Washington Post’s Scott Clement noted
“Obama remains vulnerable on an issue that strikes at the heart of the nation’s political debate: big government.
“More than one-third of Americans (37 percent) in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll say Obama’s views on the size and role of government are a major reason to oppose him, while 26 percent say they are a reason to support him. Among independents, Obama’s government views are negative by a 2-to-1 margin, 42 to 20 percent.”
· While Karl Rove is, of course, a partisan Republican—he was senior adviser to pro-life President George W. Bush– nonetheless he is incredibly insightful numbers cruncher. In a piece he wrote this week for the Wall Street Journal (“Obama’s Shrinking Majority”), Rove offers a plausible reason why the advantages Obama enjoyed in 2008 cannot possible extend into 2012. Everything from fewer Republicans voting for Obama, to greater Republican intensity (meaning millions who stayed at home in 2008 won’t next November) to trailing among Independents (whom he won by 8 points four years ago) to a flagging of enthusiasm among such important groups as young people and Hispanics.
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