NRL News

Another Day, another bogus poll

by | Aug 2, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-Life Mitt Romney and Pro-Abortion President Barack Obama

Today’s “who-do-they-think-they’re-fooling?” poll comes courtesy of Pew Research. While Rasmussen has pro-life Mitt Romney ahead of pro-abortion President Barack Obama by two points and every other legitimate poll has the two men within a point or two, Pew tells us today that Obama has a “double digit lead”—51% to 41%. Ten points! Really?

Parenthetically, ask yourself this: if the President is ahead nationwide by ten, why would he be ahead by only 4 points in the so-called “key battleground states”? Why would neither candidate be “holding a significant lead” in recent months in these states, according to Pew, but the bottom fall out nationwide for Romney?

The answer, as it seemingly is without letup, is the composition of the sample polled.

Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that if I poll 55 Republicans and 45 Democrats, chances are Mr. Romney will do swell.

And if my sample includes 32% Democrats and 18% Republicans, President Obama will fare very well!

That, by the way, is the composition of Pew’s sample.

The Pew Poll  points out that partisans of both parties largely support their candidate. No surprise there.

“Obama’s overall edge at this point is based on the healthy advantage in overall party identification that Democrats have enjoyed in recent years.”

I’m guessing that’s Pew’s justification for overweighting the sample with Democrats. But as we have discussed repeatedly, party identification is virtually even now, and Independents have tilted in Romney’s direction. It’s as if they think time stood still—that the 2010 elections don’t count.

In addition, Pew writes

“But it is unclear whether the Democrats’ advantage in party identification will benefit Obama on Election Day. Romney supporters continue to say they have given more thought to this election than Obama supporters – a key measure of voter engagement. This is consistent with the Pew Research Center’s June study that found that the GOP holds the early edge across a wide range of turnout indicators.”

Last week Gallup reported that Republicans enjoyed a whopping  51% to 39%  advantage in voter enthusiasm.

Also cutting against the ten point advantage theory, Pew writes

“Currently, slightly more voters have a favorable (50%) than unfavorable (45%) opinion of Barack Obama. Though there are still more than three months to go before the election, Obama’s current favorability ratings compare poorly with the final pre-election ratings for previous Democratic candidates. Not since Michael Dukakis in 1988 has a Democratic candidate gone into the election with favorability ratings as low as Obama’s are today.”

Well, Gallup, which polls regularly with a gigantic sample, has Obama’s approval at 45% and disapproval at 49%, virtually the exact opposite of Pew.

How do these people look themselves in the mirror?

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Categories: Polling