By Dave Andrusko
As we do every Friday, we end this week’s National Right to Life News Today with a review of what the poll numbers tell us.
Previously we discussed the “intensity gap”: Republicans hold a twelve point advantage. We also talked about Rasmussen’s presidential poll which shows pro-life Mitt Romney ahead of pro-abortion Barack Obama, 47% to 43% (both yesterday and today).
Two polls yesterday, however, found Obama ahead by 7 points (CNN) and 9 points (Fox News). Put all these together and what might it suggest?
Nate Silver writes a well-respected column for the New York Times (“Fivethirtyeight: Nate Silver’s Political Calculus”) and had these thoughts from which I liberally borrow.
These advantages—whether Obama’s nor Romney’s—are not consistent with Gallup’s whose most current “rolling average” of seven days have the two men locked at 46% each. Even more curious, over the same seven days Obama’s “unfavorable” numbers have increased by three points–up to 51% disapproval! In addition other polls have them very, very close.
Even more intriguing is WHY there would be any improvement for Obama. As Silver notes
“Might Mr. Obama have gained half a point, or a point, based on whatever residual factors that voters are thinking about? Sure, and Mr. Romney would rather that movement be in his direction instead. But has Mr. Obama gained three points, at a time when most ordinary Americans are watching the Olympics? Probably not.”
There is also the ever-present “bias” when a poll is of registered voters. Silver argues that Mr. Romney’s numbers are about 2 points better if the poll is of likely voters.
There is much else in his column worth pondering. The bottom line is that it difficult to believe that Obama is ahead—if he is ahead—by more than a point or two, given how stable the numbers in this race have been.
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