By Dave Andrusko
Over at “Today is a good day for America and there are better days ahead,” we talk about how one Washington Post columnist rationalizes the dreadful and appalling comments coming out of the Obama re-election team in the same edition where there is widespread speculation that Obama might dump vice president Joe Biden whose comments are so over the top that even CNN appears amazed. Go figure.
Another reason President Obama could be looking for a spark is the direction of the polls: they virtually all show increased support for the pro-life team of Mitt Romney and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. Here’s how Rasmussen summarizes the result of his latest surveys, starting with Wisconsin, which Obama carried with 56% in 2008:
· “The presidential race in Wisconsin is a little tighter this month following Mitt Romney’s selection of hometown Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate. The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 48% support to President Obama’s 47%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. In late July, it was Obama 49%, Romney 46%. This is the Republican’s largest level of support yet in the Badger State. Prior to this survey, the president has earned 45% to 52% of the vote, while Romney has picked up 41% to 46% of the vote.”
Then there is the pivotal “swing” state of Florida. Rasmussen concludes
“Mitt Romney and President Obama still run nearly even in Florida just days after the Republican named Congressman Paul Ryan to be his running mate.
“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Romney earning 45% support to the president’s 43%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.”
Rasmussen summarizes the status of the competitors in 13 other states:
“The presidential race is also a Toss-Up in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia. Romney leads in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. Obama is ahead in New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania.”
How about Gallup, which polls massive numbers of people? For the first time since July 18, Romney leads Obama in Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll, 47% to 45%. They were tied Saturday when Romney chose Ryan.
How about Obama’s approval ratings? They’ve reached 50% disapproval, according to Gallup, compared to 44% approval.
How about young people? John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Paul Bedard of the Washington Examiner: that in a weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, Romney garnered 41% of the 18-29 year olds. Obama received 49%. In 2008, Obama carried 66% of this vote.
One very interesting component of the presidential contest is social media, the use of which President Obama pioneered four years ago. A Pew Research Center study released this week said that the Obama campaign is dominating the Romney campaign online.
As Vincent Harris wrote today, “Pew has a stellar reputation both in the academic and media communities, one that it has built up with a fantastic assortment of research and information relevant to many fields. This specific study though has a flawed data set, one that could hardly have been better designed to tell a positive story for the Obama campaign.”
You can read his counter-conclusion (“Romney, Not Obama, Is Winning The Social Media Race”) at www.buzzfeed.com/vincentharris/romney-not-obama-is-winning-the-social-media-rac. Harris argues that while Obama does have an overwhelming lead in total “fans,” the more important number is Facebook’s public “Talking About” figure which showcases the number of people interacting with content on a Facebook page.
“This is the sum number of people who have liked, shared, or commented on page’s content over a seven-day period,” Harris writes.
“As of 12:30 a.m. Thursday, Mitt Romney had 1,579,476 people talking about his page compared with 1,354,550 for President Barack Obama. This means that more people are actually interacting with content on Mitt Romney’s page than Barack Obama’s page despite Obama’s having an almost 7 to 1 advantage in total fans over Romney. This is a remarkable figure, one that I believe reflects the grassroots enthusiasm around the Paul Ryan announcement. If Obama were really ‘outpacing’ Romney online he would need seven times as many people talking about his page than Romney has simply to remain proportional. In reality though, Obama has fewer people talking about his page.”
This is consistent with everything you read and hear: the choice of Ryan has energized the Romney campaign and stirred enormous grassroots expressions of enthusiasm every place they go, as a team or individually.
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