NRL News

Presidential race remains ultra-close

by | Sep 19, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-Life Mitt Romney and Pro-Abortion Barack Obama

In many ways, all you need to know to understand where the presidential contest is right now is found in the headline and sub-headline to an analysis that appears at Gallup today:

”Obama 48%, Romney 46% in Swing States:  Twenty-two percent of   swing-state voters could change their vote preference.”

As we’ll discuss below, the contest between pro-life Mitt Romney and pro-abortion President Barack Obama is about as neck and neck as it possible to be, 48 days out from the November 6 elections.

And as NRL News Today has observed on numerous occasions, never accept the conventional wisdom. As indicated by the Gallup numbers, a whopping 22% of voters in the twelve swing states are still potentially up for grabs. To be more specific, 5% are undecided and 17% say there is at least a slight chance they may change their vote. 

Given what has happened in the last week, it would be difficult to exaggerate how volatile the situation is, both at home and abroad. My guess is that that “soft” 17% may be more open to changing their vote than they let on.

There is a tremendous amount of data available, so we’ll focus on the major points.

The Gallup poll, as noted, shows Obama up two points among  registered voters in the swing states—states that are highly competitive. “Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters nationwide now finds Obama at 47% and Romney at 46%, suggesting a fading of Obama’s post-convention bounce.” That is one point closer than it was a month ago. And the situation may be better for Romney since the tracking is not of likely voters but of registered voters.

Rasmussen Reports has Romney up one (47% to 46%) and tied with Mr. Obama at 48%, if “leaners” are included.

A new AP/GfK national poll of likely voters shows Obama up a point over Romney, 47/46. The Washington Post’s lead is

“President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney stand about even among likely voters, with 47 percent backing Obama and 46 percent Romney. But there are sharp demographic divides driving each candidate’s support.

“Women broadly back the president (55 percent for Obama vs. 39 percent for Romney) while men favor the GOP ticket (53 percent for Romney to 40 percent for Obama). The gender gap tightens some in the suburbs, where women tilt Obama by a narrower 51 percent to 45 percent margin, while suburban men favor Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent.

“White voters without college degrees favor Romney by more than 30 points over Obama (63 percent back Romney compared with 30 percent behind Obama), a steeper split than the 18-point margin John McCain held over Obama among the group in 2008. White voters with college degrees are about evenly split (50 percent Obama to 48 percent Romney), about on par with 2008.

“Younger voters are less apt to be likely voters than their elder counterparts, hinting at the turnout battle to come, but voters under age 45 remain solidly in Obama’s camp, 54 percent to 41 percent. Senior citizens, on the other hand, lean Romney, 52 percent to 41 percent for Obama.”

On an individual state basis, let’s look at Virginia where a new Quinnipiac University poll finds Mr. Obama with a 50%-46% advantage. The problem here is the same that is so often the case with presidential polls this cycle.

In 2008, a sweep year for Democrats, Democrats enjoyed a 6% turnout advantage. But the Quinnipiac University poll’s sample gives Democrats an 11 point advantage—35% to 24%–almost twice the lead they had in a banner year.

Likewise, Romney enjoys an eleven point lead among Independent, 53% to 42%, but somehow he is behind? That simply makes no sense.

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Categories: Politics