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Split decision in two new presidential polls

by | Sep 13, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-abortion President Barack Obama and Pro-life Mitt Romney

In a presidential contest as close as this one, not surprisingly two new polls disagree whether pro-life Mitt Romney or pro-abortion Barack Obama is leading.

Rasmussen Reports, which tracks daily, found Romney up a point—47% to 46% for Obama. “This is the first time in a week that Romney has held even a single-point advantage,” according to Rasmussen Reports.

There are two other important findings. After a temporary change following the Democratic National Convention, Republicans once again are “more engaged in the election” than Democrats. Forty-nine percent of Republicans are following the election on a daily basis compared to 42% of Democrats.

“A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection,” Rasmussen notes. “Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.”

A Fox News poll released Wednesday gave the President a five point advantage—48% to 43%. Two caveats are worth mentioning in a poll that gives Mr. Obama a surprisingly large lead.

First, as is often the case, the voter sample included more Democrats than Republicans (42% to 36%). As this point there is no reason to believe this reflects who the electorate will be that votes November 6.

Second the Fox News poll finds Obama leading 44% to 39% among Independent voters. This is not reflected, as far as I know, by any other poll. Mr. Romney is routinely ahead among Independents.

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Categories: Politics