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Another National poll shows Romney up by 4 points over Obama

by | Oct 16, 2012

By Dave Andrusko
http://twitter.com/daveha

National Right to Life President Carol Tobias essentially advises us today to not get too high when evidence suggests Mitt Romney is prevailing or too low on those occasions when President Barack Obama seems to be ahead. (See “21 Days to go: Keep on Keeping On.”) Good advice, because as we are rapidly approaching the second presidential debate, the wind does seem to be at Mr. Romney’s back.

Who would have thought a month ago we’d read this page one headline in USA Today: “Three weeks left, women push Romney into lead,” a reference to Romney’s four point advantage among likely voters in 12 swing states. And while we’ll talk about more favorable data, the point remains the same: there are 21 days left and we should we working harder than ever.*

Today’s Public Policy Polling result, commissioned by the Daily Kos/SEIU, is in many senses more significant. The PPP is a Democratic pollster and the Daily Kos is a huge media admirer of President Obama. That survey of likely voters puts Romney at 50% to 46% for the President, a lead of four points!

But as Ed Morrissey shrewdly pointed out, the scary part for Obama was the trend. To quote the Daily Kos, “At a time when other polls are moving back in the president’s direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:

“Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49

Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47

Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55”

In other words each day was worse and by Sunday it was awful for the President. But to its credit, after trying to explain away that trend, the Daily Kos did not sugarcoat what followed next:

“Swing state Obama 47, Romney 50

Blue state Obama 52, Romney 45

Red State Obama 40, Romney 56

“Two weeks ago, it was Obama leading Romney 50-46 in the Swing states. But he was also winning Blue states by 56-37, and losing Red states by just 41-52. Actually, the change in Red states is smaller (-5) compared to Blue states (-12) and Swing states (-7).

“Finally, a demographic note—in this poll, 44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to 16 percent who were liberal. In 2008, 34 percent were conservative, and 22 percent were liberal. Now this could point to a bad sample, or it could point to depressed enthusiasm among our base. Let’s really hope it’s the former.”

Speaking of enthusiasm, the aforementioned USA Today/Gallup poll addressed that in detail. Notice the last paragraph in particular.

“Enthusiasm about voting has risen in both parties: 41% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans in the USA TODAY poll now say they are ‘extremely enthusiastic’ about voting for president this year, a significant jump since June, before the conventions. Among women, the rise is particularly steep — perhaps reflecting the tendency among many women to tune into elections later than men.

“The percentage of female registered voters who are extremely enthusiastic about voting has doubled since June and tripled from October 2011, when the first Swing States poll was taken. Women, who consistently had lagged men, are now more engaged: 41% of women and 35% of men report being extremely enthusiastic.

“Among women, more Romney supporters are extremely enthusiastic than Obama supporters, 46% versus 38%. Married women, who tend to vote Republican, are more enthusiastic than unmarried women, who tend to vote Democratic.”

One other result of note, from Gallup today, which was busy spinning the result. Bottom line: 52% of registered voters give Romney a favorable rating, compared to 44% unfavorable. It’s 51% favorable, 48% unfavorable for the President. In other words, Mr. Romney has a net +8, Mr. Obama a net +3.

For more, see “Romney beginning to move up in various states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire

* USA Today made a slight correction later in the day on Monday, which changed nothing but was important for the purposes of complete accuracy. Obama and Romney were not tied among women—Obama leads by a single point—and Romney’s margin among men was a +8.

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Categories: Politics