NRL News

Eight days to go, presidential contest as tight as ever

by | Oct 29, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-Life Mitt Romney and Pro-abortion President Barack Obama

Like so many of you, my family has battened down the hatches as ‘Sandy’ comes roaring in. But as long as the power works, NRL News Today will be cranking out stories, including about the latest polling data.

Quick summary of some major polls:

Pro-life Mitt Romney continues to lead pro-abortion President Barack Obama in Gallup’s survey, 51% to 46%. Along with Rasmussen, Gallupis the only major poll I know of that reflects the fact that there has been an enormous shift in partisan identification in the last year: from a ten-point Democratic advantage to a one-point lead among those who identify themselve as Republican.

Romney enjoys a two point advantage, according to Rasmussen Reports, 49% to 47%.

Today’s  Politico/GWU Battleground tracking poll finds President Obama with a one-point lead, 49% to 48%. But again, the bottomline doesn’t square with what the internals of the poll reveal. As Ed Morrissey observes,

“Romney wins independents by 10 points, 50/40.  When broken down into soft/hard partisan and ticket-splitter categories, Romney’s lead increases to 16 among ticket-splitters, 50/34.  Romney also has neutralized the gender gap in this poll, winning men by 12 (55/43) while losing women by 11 (43/54).”

And, of course, the poll results are predicated on a miserable turnabout among Republicans, which simply makes no sense.

Today’s Washington Post/ABC News poll finds Romney in the lead by one point, 49% to 48%, the third day in a row Romney has retained a one-point advantage. But Romney’s advantage among Independents is a staggering 15 points (55% to 40%). Obama carried Independents in 2008 by eight points—thus a net turnaround in the gap of 23 points in a category that makes up appropriately 30% of the electorate. Romney is up ten among men and down eight among women. Morrissey asks

“If Romney wins independents by 15, and the gender gap by 2, how can he only be leading by one overall? Simple — the Post/ABC sample has a declining number of Republicans in its sample.  Today’s rolling three-day average has a D/R/I of 35/28/34, which would put Republicans at seven points below their 2010 turnout and five points below their 2008 turnout.  Two days ago, the sample was D+4 at 34/30, but now it’s D+7.

“The toplines are simply not credible in relation to the internals.  If Romney is winning independents outside the margin of error and has neutralized the gender gap, Obama can’t possibly be within one point overall.  Either the toplines or the internals are way off.”

One other national poll: the latest Pew Research Center for the People & the Press have Romney and Obama tied at 47%. Here is the opening paragraph:

“As the presidential campaign enters its final week, Barack Obama has failed to regain much of the support he lost in the days following the first presidential debate and the race is now even among likely voters: 47% favor Obama while an identical percentage supports Mitt Romney.”

How about the all-important state of Ohio? Today Rasmussen finds Romney up two points, 50% to 48%.  Yesterday, the Columbus Dispatch reported Romney and Obama deadlocked at 49% in the latest Dispatch/Ohio News Organization poll. On September 16, Mr. Obama was ahead by five points in that same poll.

Categories: Polling