NRL News

Gallup has Romney and Obama tied at 47% among registered voters

by | Oct 8, 2012


By Dave Andrusko

  As we talked about on Friday, we wouldn’t know until the weekend how much of a dent pro-life Mitt Romney had made in the lead (how large a lead is debatable) enjoyed by pro-abortion President Barack Obama. The “bump” is even larger than I expected. NRL News Today is running two stories on this, beginning with what Gallup numbers released today tells us.
   Obama was up 5 points among registered voters prior to the first presidential debate—50% to 45%. They are now tied at 47%, which by itself does not tell us how much Gov. Romney’s decisive victory in the first debate has changed the political landscape, which we will see in the second story.
   Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones wrote that a whopping 72% of respondents said that Romney defeated Obama (who garnered only 20%) with even Democrats rating Obama the loser, 49% to 39%. The lopsided margin is stunning.
   Jones writes that “Across all of the various debate-reaction polls Gallup has conducted, Romney’s 52-point win is the largest Gallup has measured. The prior largest margin was 42 points for Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 town hall debate.”
   As we also discussed last week, there has been an avalanche of excuses why the President appeared so lackadaisical and disengaged. The New York Times reported (in a story intended to convey that the campaign will soon be humming) “Mr. Obama does not like debates to begin with, aides have long said, viewing them as media-driven gamesmanship. He did not do all that well in 2008 but benefited from Senator John McCain’s grumpy performances. Mr. Obama made clear to advisers that he was not happy about debating Mr. Romney, whom he views with disdain. It was something to endure, rather than an opportunity, aides said.”
   I could add something about pride cometh before the fall, but…
   The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza asked, “Obama’s debate performance also raised a bigger question: Is he overrated as a candidate?” But, of course, if Obama doesn’t stumble over his own shoelaces in the next debate, we will be told, “HE’S BACK!” This momentary malaise on the part of the mainstream media will soon pass, so intense is their adoration for President Obama.
   Getting back to Gallup, it is also important to note that this tie at 47% is among registered voters, not likely voters. Almost without exception, the historical pattern is for Republicans to enjoy better numbers among likely voters than among registered voters.
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