By Dave Andrusko
In Part One of our discussion about what’s happened after the first presidential debate, we talked about how President Obama’s five point advantage over Mitt Romney had vanished (“Gallup has Romney and Obama tied at 47% among registered voters”).
But the news from the latest POLITCO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking poll is nothing short of stunning, even potentially devastating for Obama, because it goes beyond the tie to explain why the situation may be even more ominous for the President.
Here’s the lead from POLITICO’s story explaining the poll, after which I break out some individual components:
“A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.
“The head-to-head numbers have held remarkably steady through the past three weeks, but there’s been a notable shift of intensity from the Democrats to the Republicans since the party conventions over a month ago. Most of the poll’s calls were made before Romney’s strong performance at the first presidential debate in Denver.
“Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.
“Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.”
#1. “Likely voters” is always more indicative of who will actually vote November 6 than is registered voters.And among the “extremely likely to vote,” Romney is ahead by 6 points; last week he was up 2 points.
As Ed Morrissey wrote earlier today, “Intensity seems to be falling across the board among Democratic constituencies. Only 71% of African-Americans and 70% of Latinos consider themselves ‘extremely likely’ to vote, well below the topline of 79%, and only 68% of Obama’s key 2008 demo of young voters feel the same way. By contrast, 82% of white voters consider themselves ‘extremely likely’ to vote, and 77% among seniors.”
#2. The radical shift in intensity came “before Romney’s strong performance at the first presidential debate in Denver.” Put simply, it was going downhill for Mr. Obama before his weak performance. That cannot be emphasized enough.
#3. “84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats,” according to POLITICO’s James Hohmann.
#4. Obama trails even though the composition of those interviewed favors Democrats by eight points. The sample consisted of 38% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 32% Independents. It is not impossible, but highly improbable that there will be those few Republicans at the polls.
#5.”Romney now leads among independents by 16 points, 51 percent to 35 percent, “ Hohmann reports. “This is up from 4 points last week. But he still trails in the overall head-to-head numbers because of near monolithic support for Obama among minority Democrats.”
For comparison purposes, in 2008 Obama crushed Sen. John McCain among Independents, 51% to 35%.
One other note, a quote from CNN:
“Port St. Lucie, Florida (CNN)–Mitt Romney used a well-received debate performance to power his way through a three-day swing this weekend in Florida, where audiences seemed newly energized after his perceived victory over President Barack Obama.”
