NRL News

Romney is moving up in swing states; ahead nationally by six, according to Gallup, four, according to Rasmussen

by | Oct 23, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-life Mitt Romney

One of the many nice things about updating NRL News Today throughout the day is that you can include new polling data. What we’re hearing so far today continues the theme of a Romney campaign on the ascendency.

In the eleven swing states Rasmussen Reports is following, Mr. Romney’s lead now stands at 50% to 45%. “This is now the third time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states in the past four days and is the biggest lead either candidate has held in nearly three weeks.”

Among Independents Romney enjoys an eleven point advantage; a 15 point lead among men; and is only down 5 points among women.

In the individual states, “In New Hampshire and Ohio, Obama leads by a point. He leads by two in Wisconsin, three in Nevada, five in Pennsylvania  and seven in Michigan.  Romney leads by three in Virginia and four in Colorado. He’s ahead by five in Florida and six in North Carolina. The candidates are tied in Iowa.”

Democratic strategist Paul Begala and former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel both agreed Romney is doing very, very well in North Carolina. Begala told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, “[Y]es, it looks like Governor Romney is likely to carry North Carolina.”

Washington Examiner columnist Paul Bedard writes that “The president still remains committed to Virginia, but polls in the Old Dominion are now starting to show a small Romney lead. The president does have a trip planned to Virginia, but NBC political guru Chuck Todd said Monday, ‘Virginia may be slipping away from the Democrats, tilting a little more to Romney.’”

Also on Monday the Washington Post/ABC News national poll found “In The Washington Post’s tossup states of Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire (plus Ohio, which leans toward Obama, but isn’t out of Romney’s reach), Romney’s at 52 percent while Obama’s at 46 percent,” reports the Post’s Sean Sullivan. “Given the sample size, it’s not a significant edge for the Republican, but still represents a reversal from where the race has stood in those battlegrounds up until now.”

Nationally, Rasmussen has Romney up by four points (50% to 46%). As of this morning, Romney remains six points ahead of Obama (51% to 45%), according to Gallup.

Yesterday CBS News’s poll found Obama up two nationally (48% to 46%). More importantly (by far) is that  “Romney’s voters are more enthusiastic about voting this year than the president’s supporters–58 percent of Romney voters say they’re more enthusiastic about voting this year as compared to past elections, 39 percent of Obama voters say that.” In addition, last month Obama enjoyed a 12 point advantage among women; it’s now down to five points (50% to 45%).

The aforementioned Washington Post/ABC News national poll had Obama up one (49% to 48%) nationally. However Obama’s real firewall–The “favorability gap”– has crumbled: “Fifty percent of likely voters said they had a favorable opinion of Romney, compared to 52 percent who said the same of Obama,” according to Sullivan.

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Categories: Polling