NRL News

Romney on the move, ahead in latest AP poll

by | Oct 25, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-abortion Barack Obama and Pro-life Mitt Romney

Twelve days till Election Day, and the race for President could hardly be closer. What do we know mid-day on October 25?

Gallup has pro-life Mitt Romney up three points over pro-abortion President Barack Obama, 50% to 47%.

Rasmussen Reports’ daily survey has advantage Romney and by the same numbers, 50% to 47%.

A  new Associated Press-GfK poll shows not only finds Romney up by 2 points (47% to 45%), the gender gap is gone—both among women (previously favoring Obama) and largely among  men (previously favoring men). AP says Romney has totally wiped out a 16% disadvantage among women and Romney’s prior 13% margin among men has shrunk to 5%.

What should we make of that?

The advantage Mr. Obama has benefitted from among women has been consistently shrinking. Thus a 47% to 47% split is plausible, although the President could well be still ahead by a much reduced margin.

Conversely, Mr. Romney’s advantage among men has been solid throughout the polling season. Of course his margin could be slightly smaller but eight points (from 13 to 5) smaller” This is highly implausible.

What else? Throughout the campaign, respondents consistently said they expected Obama to win, regardless of their personal preference, often by double digit numbers. In the AP poll, only half expect Obama to win a second term.

But there are other equally important numbers you have to dig for. As Ed Morrissey wrote today

“There is more bad news in the data for Obama.  While he’s still seen as relatively favorable among likely voters (51/45, +6), Romney now has a +10 favorability rating at 52/42.  Romney has a seven-point lead on trust on the economy (51/44) and eight points on the deficit (51/43).  Romney now has a one-point edge on protecting the country at 47/46, a big change from last month’s six-point advantage for Obama at 51/45.”

Yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll found Romney up one point, 49% to 48%, among likely voters. Again, it’s the “internals” that are encouraging.

This poll (conducted October 20-23) shows the more conventional gender advantages—among women for Obama, among men for Romney. But the upward direction is Romney–among white men, now at 59%.

“While preferences among groups – and their turnout – will determine the outcome, concerns about the economy are driving this contest, and there Romney has made gradual progress,” according to ABC News. “Likely voters now pick him over Obama by 50-44 percent as the candidate they trust to do a better job handling the economy, a slight but marginally significant lead for Romney for the first time since late August.”

How about the “swing states”? Rasmussen continues to find Romney up in the aggregate by four points, 50% to 46% in eleven key states. Individually

“Romney leads by two in New Hampshire, three in Virginia and four in Colorado. He’s ahead by five in Florida and six in North Carolina. Obama leads by two in Nevada and Wisconsin, five in Pennsylvania  and seven in Michigan.  The candidates are tied in Iowa and Ohio.”

NRL News Today will update polling numbers early this evening. Have you read “Tools for Pro-Lifers”? If you haven’t, please do.

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Categories: Polling