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Romney Picks up Speed in “Swing” States

by | Oct 22, 2012

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-life presidential candidate Mitt Romney

Pro-Life Mitt Romney’s comeback in battleground/swing states—and even some that once were seen out of reach—continues apace. Here is a partial checklist:

  • Among the eleven “swing states,” Romney is up three points over President Obama, according to Rasmussen Reports.
  • As we noted elsewhere, Romney leads 50% to 48% across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive.
  • Rasmussen Reports finds Romney up by four points over Obama in Colorado, 50% to 46%.
  • Romney is up between one and three points in three separate Virginia polls.
  • Three recent Wisconsin polls have the President up between one and six points.
  • Conversely, three Florida polls have Romney up between one and five points.
  • And three recent polls are split in New Hampshire: Romney is up by one as is Obama in another and the third is a tie.

The really interesting results are in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Two recent polls have the race tied and Obama up one in Ohio. The outlier is CBS News/Quinnipiac which gives the President a five point advantage (50% to 45%.) This is highly implausible for several reasons.

The advantage Obama enjoys over Romney has been dropping everywhere down to single digits (low single digits in some cases). However this poll shows the President with a whopping 15 point advantage (55% to 40%).

The old standby: a distorted voter survey poll: only 26% Republican as compared to 35% Democrat. Morrissey observes

“Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline. That was his margin of victory in 2008 in Ohio, by the way, but Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in that election.  In this poll, he’s down [among Independents] seven points, a fifteen-point flip in the gap.  That’s the most telling indicator thus far, and the one that cuts through the sampling biases.”

As for Pennsylvania, “Nearly all recent polls show Mr. Obama’s lead in single digits in Pennsylvania, and four of them put his lead at four points or less,” writes Colleen McCain Nelson. “A survey released last week by Quinnipiac University found Mr. Obama leading Mr. Romney 50% to 46% in the state, down from a 12-percentage-point gap in September.”

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Categories: Mitt Romney