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What the Polls are saying one day before the second Presidential debate

by | Oct 15, 2012

By Dave Andrusko
http://twitter.com/daveha

Pro-abortion President Barack Obama and Pro-life Mitt Romney

Clearly, I will have to stop reading the front page of the Washington Post while eating breakfast. The reader is unaware until almost the last couple of paragraphs that the way in which the Washington Post/ABC poll is able to have President Barack Obama up over Mitt Romney 49% to 46% is that the sample is +9 for Democrats.

In other words, 34% of the electorate that will turn out in 22 days will be Democrat and only 25% Republicans. Bear in mind that in 2008 when Obama won easily, the Democrats enjoyed only a 7% advantage. In other words, part two, this is absurd. But anyway….

Gallup continues to have Romney up by 2 points (49% to 47%) and Rasmussen Reports’ survey has Romney up one point (49% to 48%).

One day before the second presidential debate, no one would disagree that Mr. Romney is on a roll. He is closing the gap in most every “battleground” state and the enthusiasm is so palpable even the New York Times is reporting that he is attracting “Obama-size” crowds. Here is just a handful of the most recent positive developments.

  • In the Washington Post/ABC News, the percentage of “very enthusiastic” Romney supporters has climbed ten points post debate–from 52% to 62%. Obama’s numbers went up one point after the debate–from 59% to 60%.
  • One of Mr. Obama’s biggest advantages had been favorability ratings. POLITICO quite properly notes, “Obama’s enduring personal popularity has been a key reason for his political resiliency.” But according to a Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters. Mr. Romney’s favorability number is up to 51%. He now trails Mr. Obama by only two points. This is important in and of itself but also because the President has been faring better in these battleground states than in the national poll.
  • In that same poll, Obama is up one point over all, BUT Romney is now ahead 50% to 48% in the ten states identified by POLITICO as competitive. BTW: “[V]oters disapprove of Obama’s handling of the federal budget and spending by a margin of 16 percentage points, 56 percent to 40 percent.”
  • Romney is now tied with Obama in Iowa, 48% to 48%, according to the latest American Research Group poll, a jump of seven points since September. (Independents favor Romney by a huge margin. 52% to 40%.) Romney leads in Virginia 48% to 47%.
  • Getting back to Romney’s surge in the battleground states, most credit, properly, has gone to his performance in the Denver debate. But it is also hugely significant that for the first time he has not been outspent by a 3-1 margin in TV ads. Romney is ahead in the most recent polls in Florida, and very, very close in the pivotal state of Ohio.

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Categories: Politics