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The Obama “Defectors”

by | Nov 2, 2012

By Dave Andrusko
http://twitter.com/daveha 

Next Tuesday if President Obama becomes former President Obama, the blame game will begin in earnest. The one thing we can know in advance is that for many, the ONLY explanation for his defeat will be a defective electorate: variations of he was probably too good for us anyway.

But in the meanwhile there is this from this morning’s Washington Post–“The Obama defectors,” by Aaron Blake and Scott Clement–answering the question “just who exactly has deserted Obama over the last four years?”

The product of two weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews, we’re told it finds that “84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or haven’t made up their mind yet.”

(But before we get to that, what are categories of people who have most faithfully stayed with the President? Liberal Democrats, African-Americans, Hispanics, and those making under $50,000.)

Here’s a long quote explaining who is jumping ship:

“Among the most likely to defect are the usual suspects [not to be confused with the ‘usual suspects’ who haven’t defected]: Republicans and conservatives who crossed over to vote for Obama in 2008, along with white evangelicals and white men without college degrees. Obama already struggled with these groups, so no surprise here.

“What’s perhaps most striking is who the rest of Obama’s defectors are. While much of the focus has been on how Obama has turned off white men, his defectors run the gamut.

“Obama is losing 16 percent of white non-evangelical Protestants who previously supported him to Romney, but also 19 percent of white Catholics. While he has lost 21 percent of his non-college-educated white men, he has also lost 17 percent of white male college graduates and 18 percent of women who didn’t attain four-year degrees. And Obama has lost between 11 percent and 14 percent of supporters in all three age groups: under 40 years old, 40-64, and 65-plus.

“(Yes, many of these groups are white, but within the white demographic — which is still roughly three-fourths of the electorate — the even distribution of defectors is notable.)”

Blake’s and Clement’s conclusion is fascinating because it is so honest:

“It’s pretty clear that many types of Americans are breaking up with Obama in their own way, and if Obama loses, it won’t be because he lost favor with any one particular group. The breakup would in fact be pretty universal.”

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Categories: Obama