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Republicans enjoy advantage in enthusiasm and how important November 4 elections are

Sep 23, 2014

 

By Dave Andrusko

worthdefendingWe’ve taken a couple of days off from the upcoming November mid-term elections. Here are a few updates, bearing in mind the inexorable truth that electoral politics are always fluid.

Taking that point first, every week or two you read accounts (no doubt most of which are sincere) that “momentum” has switched, making a net gain of six in the Senate for Republicans–the number needed to take control–somewhat less probable.

We’ve written about this many times before. The core fundamentals don’t shift—more Democrats are up for re-election and many of them in states Romney carried in 2012, for example—but perceived and real ebbs and flows make flat-out predictions always problematic. That three seats currently held by Democrats are gone is also a given.

And while there are many ways to skin a cat—or in this case estimate how the Senate will shape up after November 4—enthusiasm is, for me, second in importance only to President Obama’s dismal approval ratings and downward spiraling voter confidence in his competency.

A NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Annenberg poll of 815 registered voters released this week starts out with this clever and telling paragraph from NBC News’s Carrie Dann:

“Even the most casual sports watcher knows that winning sometimes comes down to which team wants it more. And by that measure, six weeks away from the elections in November, Republicans are dominating the midterm game.”

Dann quotes Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who said, “Off-year elections are about intensity, which becomes a question of which set of voters cares most.” Hart added, “In the opening lap of the general election, the GOP is winning.”

He could have added “by a lot.” Republicans have a ten and 8 point advantage on two measures.

First, asked if they are highly interested in the upcoming elections, 54% or Republicans said they were, as compared to 44% of Democrats. Second, on the genetic ballot question (asking whether they would vote for an unnamed Republican/Democrat for office), Republicans have the 51% to 43% advantage among high-interest voters.

You might say, given these numbers, that “of course” Republicans think more is at stake in five weeks. But also consider, according to Dann,

“Asked how this election compares to other cycles, three in four Republicans said that this one is much more important (42 percent) or somewhat more important (33 percent) than others.

“Just 57 percent of Democrats give it the same level of importance.”

One other result from the poll. The relative enthusiasm of the parties’ core constituencies is abundantly clear.

“Among registered voters, just 42 percent of women, 31 percent of African-Americans, 23 percent of Hispanics and 20 percent of voters aged 18-34 said they’re highly interested in the election.

“Compare that to these traditionally GOP-leaning groups: 62 percent of seniors, 63 percent of Tea Party supporters and 50 percent of white men said the same.”

No wonder Dann ends

“With less than 45 days to go until Election Day, those are numbers to make Democrats cry.”

Categories: Politics
Tags: Politics