NRL News

The mid-term elections and those who are “extremely” or “very likely” to vote

by | Oct 24, 2014


By Dave Andrusko

motivatedtovote2In composing an absolutely withering column in which she crushed President Obama, Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan started with this: “No one knows what’s going to happen next week, never mind Nov. 4.”

True enough, we don’t. But, then again, we could never know 11 days out whether there will be a huge turnover in Senate in any election. Too many races are going to be decided by a point or two and the winners of a couple (Louisiana and Georgia come to mind) may not reach the 50% threshold, thus requiring runoffs.

But that competitiveness means that the pro-life “increment” is more important than ever. You’d never know it by media accounts, but in most elections the advantage among single issue voters enjoyed by the pro-life candidate over the pro-abortion candidate is 2% to 4%. In close elections, this advantage is huge!

NRL News Today writes regularly about the dismal effect President Obama’s plummeting job approval numbers are having on Democrats. But the impact may be even more drastic that we might first imagine.

Yesterday, the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake wrote about a new AP-GfK poll. Not only did a meager 17% of likely voters in that survey say they “strongly approve” of Obama, just 9% said they are “enthusiastic” about the Obama administration.

This is part and parcel of the most famous idioms of this election cycle, the “enthusiasm gap.” Republicans are much more like to vote November 4 than are their Democratic counterparts.

But there’s an additional twist that came from Gallup today, talking about the extra enthusiasm of those who identify with the Tea Party. This is important, as Frank Newport tells us at the end, because “most Tea Party supporters are Republicans or Republican leaners” and it is “unlikely that they will be voting for anyone other than a Republican candidate.”

Click here to read the October issue of
National Right to Life News,
the “pro-life newspaper of record.”

Newport tells us that 73% of self-identifying Tea Party supporters are very or extremely motivated to vote in the midterms. This compares to 57% of other Republicans to only 42% of “non-Republicans,” which (to only state the obvious) presumably would include Democrats.

It would be interesting if Gallup both separated out pro- and anti-life likely voters and reported what percentage of each was “extremely or very motivated” to vote. I’m confident the results would bear out that pro-lifers are more motivated to vote and that post-election polling would reveal that indeed they did!

Categories: Politics Polling