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A look ahead after the weekend presidential primaries and caucuses

by | Mar 7, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

Donald  Trump

Donald Trump

I only saw portions of last night’s fiery debate between pro-abortionists Hillary Clinton and Democratic Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) but enough to realize that no matter how far Sanders may be behind in the delegate count, there is no reason to believe he won’t contest his party’s presidential nomination all the way up until the July 25–28 convention in Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, electorally, over the weekend, Sanders won in Nebraska, Kansas, and Maine while Clinton won delegate-rich Louisiana. Clinton has 1,130 delegates to Sanders’ 499 delegates. A total of 2,383 delegates is needed to win the nomination.

Sen. Ted Cruz

Sen. Ted Cruz

On the Republican side front runner Donald Trump carried Kentucky and Louisiana. Texas Senator Ted Cruz won in Maine and Kansas. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished first in Puerto Rico. What does that mean going ahead?

Sen. Marco Rubio

Sen. Marco Rubio

Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit produces a morning briefing, “First Read.” Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Carrie Dann looked at the current delegate count for Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich [www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-why-trump-s-delegate-lead-could-be-narrower-n533216].

Gov. John Kasich

Gov. John Kasich

They then spun out alternative scenarios that take into account the March 12 voting in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia and the crucial March 15 contests which includes such winner-take-all states as Florida (Rubio’s home state) and Ohio (Kasich’s home state). The context is winning the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the GOP nomination.

Although these are not absolutely fixed numbers, according to First Read, Mr. Trump currently has 392 delegates; Sen. Cruz 305; Sen. Rubio 153; and Gov. Kasich 35.

Here are three graphs published this morning. Again, they are not predictions, they are “what-ifs”:

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Categories: Politics