NRL News

Trump “surge,” according to swing state poll and AOL online poll

by | May 11, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

Quinnipiac University Swing State poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Tuesday was consumed by the very pleasant task of putting the final touches on the May digital edition of National Right to Life News, which I hope you are already reading intently [

I mention this, not only to persuade you to pass the link along to pro-life friends and family, but also to explain why we didn’t say anything yesterday about the fascinating results from the “Quinnipiac University Swing State” poll.

In a nutshell, the poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, key swing states in contemporary politics. This is utterly counter-intuitive until you recall two oft-neglected items.

First, that we elect presidents by states. Overall poll numbers of all 50 states can be very indicative or they can be terribly misleading.

Second, the electorate wants change and not only is Clinton the furthest away from being a change candidate as you could possibly imagine, she polls dreadfully on such basic issues as honesty and leadership.

So, what specifically does the poll of over 1,000 voters in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio reveal?

“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012,” Brown added. “And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”

I don’t have insider/expertise on any of these states, which probably explains why the next two sets of numbers were far more interesting to me. (From the press release that accompanied the results):

“The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump,” Brown added. “In Pennsylvania, Clinton’s 19-point lead among women matches Trump’s 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men.”

What about Independents?

*Florida –dead heat, 39% to 39%

*Ohio –40% for Trump, 37% for Clinton

* Pennsylvania–43% for Trump, 36% for Clinton

The obvious caveats–we are six months away from the election and Democratic Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders fares better than either Trump or Clinton–to name just two.

In addition, while last week CNN found Clinton up by a whopping 13 points, an online AOL poll of 1,289 people conducted from Friday to Tuesday found 41% of likely voters supported Clinton and 40% percent backed Trump.

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Categories: Politics