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Recent national polls show Clinton up over Trump, also holds narrow leads in battleground states

by | Jun 27, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

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Quinnipiac University Swing State poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Monday’s Supreme Court decision to annihilate portions of the pro-life Texas HB 2 (in the words of pro-life champion Rep. Chris Smith) is “devastating news” which “underscores the incredibly high stakes the Supreme Court vacancy holds for the unborn child. 43 years ago the Supreme Court stripped away protection for unborn children and their mothers. Restoring that protection requires a Court that acknowledges the right of states to protect women’s health and the unborn.”

With that in mind, what do the latest polls tell us about the presidential contest, which is a little over four months away?

If you are a partisan of pro-abortion-to-the maximum Hillary Clinton, the best news came from a new Washington Post/ABC News poll which showed the former Secretary of State ahead of billionaire Donald Trump by 12 points, 51% to 39%.

But the news isn’t quite as awesome as the Washington Post would have you believe.

For example, that 12 points “also happened to be the gap between Democrats and Republicans in their sample of adults,” according to Ed Morrissey.

Moreover, as Philip Bump, a Washington Post columnist observed yesterday

Hillary Clinton’s large lead looks a bit shakier when we consider who is firmly committed to getting to the polls in November.

Bump broke the numbers out by age, ethnicity, education, and the like with the objective being to estimate the likelihood of each group voting come November. He found

The groups that are less likely to say they’re certain to vote are also groups among which Clinton does better.

Overall, slightly more Donald Trump supporters say they’re certain to vote than are backers of Clinton. Seventy-six percent of Clinton backers say they’re certainly or probably going to vote in November; 84 percent of Trump backers say the same.

In addition, according to Bump,

Clinton gets the same support from non-white voters in our current poll as Barack Obama got in 2008 and 2012. But at this point, those voters are much less likely to say they’re certain to vote than they were four and eight years ago. Meanwhile, Trump does about as well with white men as did Mitt Romney four years ago — and white men are just as likely to say they’re going to vote as they were then. White women are much less supportive of Trump than Romney, but they are also less likely to say they’re certain to turn out to vote.

Part of this probably overlaps with the general dissatisfaction with both candidates. White women are less likely to support Trump than they were Romney and less certain to vote —perhaps because neither option was palatable. That may also be the case with younger voters. They prefer Clinton to Trump but heavily backed Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries. They, too, may be more indifferent to voting in November as a result.

The other piece of polling news that is less encouraging to media darling Hillary Clinton is a poll conducted a couple of days earlier by NBC News/ Wall Street Journal.

That poll showed Clinton up by 5 points–46% to 41%. However, according to NBC News’ Mark Murray,

When the horserace is expanded to four candidates — including Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein — Clinton gets support from 39 percent of voters, Trump gets 38 percent, Johnson 10 percent and Stein 6 percent.

The real race, obviously, is conducted state by state. Mrs. Clinton “holds narrow leads” in the “battleground states,” according to the new CBS Battleground polls.

Antony Salvanto writes

Battleground states are called battlegrounds for a reason: They’re often close, and 2016 looks like no exception.

Hillary Clinton holds narrow leads over Donald Trump across a number of key states of Florida (up three points, 44 to 41 percent); Colorado (Clinton 40 percent, Trump 39 percent); Wisconsin (Clinton up 41 percent to 36 percent) and North Carolina, which has flipped back and forth between the parties in the last two elections, where it’s Clinton 44 percent and Trump 42 percent.

Stay tuned.

Categories: Politics