By Dave Andrusko

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton
The latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll is massive. Conducted online July 4 through July 10, it sampled 7,869 adults who say they are registered to vote. What did it find?
The headline reads, “Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Shrinks After Controversial Week.” Unlike some other smaller polls which show Clinton with a much larger lead over billionaire and presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, the 5 point margin the former Secretary of State enjoyed last week is down to 3 points.
Here’s the lead from the story written by Hannah H. Hartig, John Lapinski, and Stepanie Psyllos
Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump narrowed to 3 points this week after several days of controversy following FBI Director James Comey’s recommendation that no criminal charges be brought against the former secretary of state over her use of a private email server.
While the developments are certainly good news for the Clinton campaign, Comey’s critical statement on Clinton’s handling of the matter was not positive. Clinton’s lead over Trump has deteriorated in the past couple weeks since her lead peaked two weeks ago [at eight points].
We talked about similar results from the ABC News/Washington Post survey yesterday.
As always, the more interesting details are found in the crosstabs and the secondary questions. For example
- “The email controversy seems to have a meaningful impact on voters’ impressions of the presumptive Democratic nominee as 66 percent of voters now say she is not honest and trustworthy — including a third of her own supporters. This issue was a sticking point for many Democrats during her primary campaign run and is often attributed in part to Bernie Sanders’ ability to remain somewhat competitive with Clinton.”
The three authors take some of the bite off the sting by noting that Clinton’s unfavorable/favorable ratings are virtually unchanged since May (dreadfully low favorability numbers). But the implication–that Clinton has sunk as far as she can–is never used when bashing Donald Trump and ignores that there are three and a half months for more to come out about her use of a private email server while Secretary of State.
- “While a majority of American voters (56 percent) disagree with Comey’s recommendation that Clinton should not be prosecuted by the Department of Justice, these attitudes break sharply by candidate support. Though Donald Trump’s supporters nearly unanimously (93 percent) disagree with the FBI’s conclusions, a majority (78 percent) of Clinton’s supporters agree that she should not be prosecuted. A notable two in 10 of Clinton’s supporters, however, said they disagreed with Comey’s decision as well.” [When I went to the link to the methodology page, I couldn’t find a breakout by party, so I can’t say how Independents responded.]
Remember that in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, “[T]hree in 10 of Clinton’s own party faithful think she should have been charged,” according to reporter Gregory Holyk. “Further, as noted, political independents side more with Republicans on the issue, with roughly six in 10 saying the FBI was wrong and that the issue raises worries about Clinton as president.”
- On the drip-drip front, Hartig, Lapinski, and Psyllos observe “A strong majority of voters (82 percent) agreed that it was inappropriate for Clinton to use a personal email server during her tenure as secretary of state.” This number, while extremely high already, still has room to grow.