NRL News

Latest polls put Trump up in Florida, tied in Ohio

by | Jul 13, 2016

Polls in Pennsylvania and Iowa have split results

By Dave Andrusko

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

The last couple of days NRL News Today has detailed the hits pro-abortion Hillary Clinton’s popularity has taken, which appears to be explained almost entirely by opposition to the FBI’s decision not to charge Clinton for using a private email server while serving as Secretary of State.

It got much, much worse, beginning last night and extending into today for Mrs. Clinton. Here is just some of the bad news for Planned Parenthood’s favorite presidential candidate and good news for defenders of unborn babies.

By way of summary, Clinton is even more unpopular than Trump is with voters; Trump’s negative gender gap (the greater percentage of women who favor Clinton over Trump) has shrunk and his positive gender gap–his popularity among men–has stabilized; Trump does better when the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included in the survey; Clinton’s standing among Independents is declining; and the public’s disenchantment with Clinton continues to grow [“With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards” is the way Quinnipiac describes it].

Let’s first note that while the Quinnipiac University Poll has Trump ahead by 2 points over Clinton in Pennsylvania, the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll finds Clinton up by 9 points, down from 15 in April, in the Keystone State. Likewise, where the Monmouth University poll has Trump up 2 points in Iowa, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll has Clinton ahead by 3 points.

#1. David Lightman of McClatchy News

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has withered to 3 percentage points, signaling their battle for the White House has become too close to call heading into the two major-party national conventions, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, now leads Trump by 42 to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup. While Republicans and Democrats are solidly behind their candidates, independents are divided, 36 percent for Clinton, 33 percent for Trump – and 23 percent undecided. …

The email furor was a favorite reason many voters gave for rejecting Clinton. “Hillary has too many scandals going on,” said Ron Pool, 43, an independent voter from San Antonio.

#2. Maxwell Taney, writing for AOL

Donald Trump made up his deficit against Hillary Clinton in a series of new key battleground-state polls, swinging to leads in Florida and Pennsylvania and a tie in Ohio.

The new set of Quinnipiac University polls released Wednesday found the presumptive Republican presidential nominee in a dead heat with Clinton in the three states, a slight change from similar Quinnipiac University polls conducted last month. …

“Donald Trump enters the Republican convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead in Florida, is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania, and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio,” Quinnipiac University polling director Peter A. Brown said in a statement.

#3. From a press release from Quinnipiac University Poll

With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards, Democrat Hillary Clinton loses an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, and finds herself in too-close-to-call races in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. …

#4. The Monmouth University Poll on Iowa

Donald Trump holds a nominal 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton in the battle for Iowa’s electoral votes, according to the Monmouth University Poll. …

“It’s a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a midwest push for Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. …

One unusual finding in the poll is that Trump leads among voters under 50 years old in Iowa. In Monmouth polls conducted nationally and in other states, Clinton has held an advantage with younger voters. Specifically, 51% of Iowa voters under age 50 currently support Trump, compared to 32% for Clinton, 7% for Johnson, and 3% for Stein or another candidate. Among voters age 50 and older, Clinton has the edge with 50% support, compared to 38% for Trump, 4% for Johnson and 1% for Stein or another candidate.

Leads come and go in surveys, as we’re written about many times. What is far more important is why people say they are voting they way they are. As we noted above, the cumulative effect of Mrs. Clinton’s many scandals, personified by the e-mail server debacle, is mounting. What else?

Iowa’s numbers are fascinating. It’s a commonplace that many voters are voting against someone more than for someone. In Iowa, 40% said it was very important that Donald Trump not be elected President but 45% said it was very important Hillary Clinton not be elected President. And 56% said they had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton to 51% who said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Then there is the crucial swing state of Florida, where Clinton took the biggest hit–dropping from 47% to 39%. Why? Quoting Quinnipiac:

While the gender gap remains wide, Trump gains support among men, who back him 50 – 29 percent, and women, who back Clinton 48 – 36 percent, compared to 52 – 34 percent in June. Independent voters shift from 44 – 35 percent for Clinton last month to 43 – 30 percent for Trump today. Republicans back Trump 82 – 6 percent, while Clinton leads 87 – 4 among Democrats. White voters back Trump 54 – 30 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 56 – 21 percent.

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 35 – 59 percent for her and 38 – 54 percent for him.

In Pennsylvania, 31% of voters view Clinton favorably to 65% who view her unfavorably. For Trump, 38% view him favorably to 57% who view him unfavorably.

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Categories: Politics