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Clinton assumes 8 point lead in NBC News poll

by | Aug 2, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

TrumpClinton843reTwo recent polls collectively conclude that pro-abortion Hillary Clinton received a larger “bounce” out the Democratic National Convention than Donald Trump enjoyed out of the Republican National Convention and that her lead has expanded to as much as 8 points.

As we always note, any single poll, or polls, basically a 100 days out from the election must be seen in the light of a variety of qualifications.

That having been said, the latest NBC News/Survey Monkey tracking poll finds Clinton up 50% top 42%. However, if Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included, Clinton leads is cut in half—42% to 38%.

Gallup’s survey released Monday also had bad news for Trump. Here’s the lead from Jeffrey M. Jones’s story:

Americans are evenly divided on whether they view the Democratic Party more favorably (44%) or less favorably (42%) after the party’s national convention last week. However, their ratings of the Republican Party after the GOP convention two weeks ago were significantly worse, with 35% saying they viewed the party more favorably and 52% less favorably.

Yet for all that, here is the headline from a piece that ran yesterday in POLITICO written by veteran political analyst Jeff Greenfield

Doubts Start Creeping In for Democrats:
Outwardly confident about their numbers, party veterans admit that all bets may be off this year.

Greenfield alludes to a number of demographic changes which would seemingly play to Clinton’s advantage, but then pivots:

All of these numbers should be a source of great comfort to Democratic strategists, and in public they tend to repeat them.

But just beneath the surface lies a persistent sense of uneasiness, driven by one question: What if everything we think we know about politics has been rendered inoperative?

What is Greenfield alluding to?

#1. “Every assertion about Trump during the primary battle proved wrong,” beginning with the insistence he would never run. “To say the least, this record does not inspire confidence that the normal patterns will hold in a general election.”

#2. Greenfield continued

Indeed, at a panel of Democratic pollsters last week, Hart Research president Geoff Garin warned that 2016 would be “a close competitive election. The country,” he added, “is largely frustrated with the status quo, and, as one NBC poll found, huge majorities wanted change even if they don’t know what that change is.”

#3. Even as the percentage of the population that is white decreases, Greenfield asks what if Trump is able to draw a larger percentage to the polls that many prognosticators say will happen?

What it requires is enough white voters to get excited in the right states. Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, president of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies, framed the election outlook for Clinton in blunt terms: “If turnout is 70 percent white, I like her chances,” he said. “If it’s 74 percent … I’m very worried.”

#4. According to Greenfield, a five-time Emmy-winning network television analyst

There are other ways the widespread discontent with politics as usual could express itself on Election Day in a way that winds up hurting Clinton. Garin, for example, notes that while the candidacy of Libertarian Gary Johnson is “largely a wash, millennials are more likely to back a third party, and that hurts us more.”

And

#5. Taking this altogether, in combination with an electorate that is clearly calling out for change, Greenfield concludes

And it could explain why, after all the confident assertions that the numbers point to a Clinton victory, so many of those I spoke with echoed the words of the 40-year party warrior: “If Trump wins, it means everything I thought I knew about politics is wrong. It’s just that I’m a lot less sure about what I know than I was a year ago.”

Categories: Politics Polling