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Clinton reassumes lead in first poll after the Democratic National Convention

by | Aug 1, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

Quinnipiac University Swing State poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Just 98 days to go until Americans choose their next President. Here are a few updates on polling data after both major political parties have conducted their national conventions.

#1. The latest CBS News poll gives pro-abortion Hillary Clinton a 46% to 39% lead over Donald Trump. Trump had erased Clinton’s six point lead in the CBS News survey following the GOP convention which Clinton, for now, has reassumed following the Democrats’ national convention. CBS News interviewed 1,393 adults between July 29 and July 31.

If Libertarian Gary Johnson is included, Clinton leads by five.

#2. Speaking of Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Green, reporting for The Hill, Ben Kamisar tells us

Voters now confronted with the choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are making something abundantly clear: they want another option.

Surveys over the last six weeks have found a steady but noticeable jump in support for third-party candidates. The biggest beneficiary has been Libertarian Gary Johnson, who has shot up from 4.5 percent to 7.2 percent in RealClearPolitics polling averages. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has also seen an uptick since June — from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent.

The surge in support for a third-party candidate is adding a new element of unpredictability into the presidential race. Should voters opt for a third-party candidate in large numbers, it could potentially tip the scales in crucial battleground states.

#3. Through all the changes, Trump has maintained the lead he assumed roughly two weeks ago in the USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll. The lead was as large as 7.3 points. Trump’s margin is currently 4.2 points–46.1%-41.9%.

There will be a rush of polls over the next four days, including a couple that came into that were too late to include. We will keep you up to date.

Categories: Politics Polling