NRL News

As first presidential debate approaches, Trump assumes slight lead over Clinton

by | Sep 16, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

donaldtrumpmikepence84  The latest Fox News poll is right in line with a rush of surveys that have turned the conventional wisdom about the 2016 presidential election on its head.

Pro-life Donald Trump is now ahead of pro-abortion Hillary Clinton 41% to 40% when Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Green are included. He is down one–46% to 45%–in a head-to-head.

As NRL News Today wrote yesterday, the two are also tied in the latest NYTimes/CBS News poll when all four candidates are included.

The newest Emerson College national survey has Trump up by 2 points–43% to 41%.

He is up 6 points in the daily USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll, his largest margin since winning the Republican presidential nomination.

In state polls Trump now leads by eight in Iowa,  four in Colorado, three-to-five in Florida,  three in Ohio, two in Nevada, is tied in North Carolina, and has come roaring back to trail by only three points in Michigan and Virginia. Moreover, Trump, who once trailed by 11 in Pennsylvania, has shave the deficit to 5 points in the latest Quinnipiac survey.

As is often the case, it is the “internals” of the Fox News poll of likely voters that put the results in context.

To take just one, Dana Blanton tells us

Independents prefer Trump over Clinton by 36-31 percent, while 16 percent go for Johnson and 7 percent Stein.  Eighty percent of Republicans back Trump, and 81 percent of Democrats support Clinton. 

Message? For whatever reasons they had to stay away from Trump, most Republicans now back him, with that number increasing week-to-week. In a close race Trump’s advantage among Independents could be pivotal.

More on Monday. The first presidential debate is a week from Monday.

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