NRL News

Pro-life Trump/Pro-abortion Clinton in deadheat in latest NYTimes/CBS News poll

by | Sep 15, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

I will place this quote someplace safe so even if the Internet dissolves overnight I will have it.

Chris Cillizza, one of the many, many reporters, columnists, and editorial writers at the Washington Post obsessed with defeating Donald Trump actually opened his eyes long enough to concede

Something very interesting has happened over the past two weeks in the presidential campaign: Donald Trump has seized the momentum from Hillary Clinton and is climbing back into contention in both national and key swing state polling. …

[F]or a candidate and a campaign that looked moribund a month ago, Trump has regained his footing quite nicely and put himself back into serious contention with the first debate approaching. That’s pretty impressive.

Indeed, it is impressive, given that the Post, along with the New York Times and the other usual suspects, runs hourly updates bashing Trump in an absolutely unparalleled barrage of biased, one-sided journalism.

Back to Cillizza. What is he alluding to?

The polls we reported on late yesterday and others that have come out this morning, but not the latest NYTimes/CBS News which presumably came out after he had composed his op-ed.

That NYTimes/CBS News national poll finds NRLC backed Trump and pro-abortion Hillary Clinton tied at 42% when Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party presidential candidate Jill Green are included. Without them, Clinton is up 2 points (46% to 44%) among likely voters.

We’ve already discussed Trump’s surge in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida. The newest polls reinforce patterns that no one can deny are occurring.

For example, the enthusiasm gap. You have to read some of the paragraphs right to left to get the most significant findings in the analysis of the poll written for CBS News by Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus, and Anthony Salvanto, but….

Thirty-six percent of registered voters overall now say they are very enthusiastic about voting, the same as a month ago. But one disadvantage for Clinton is that enthusiasm among Republican voters has remained steady, while enthusiasm among Democrats has dropped. Among Democratic voters, the percentage that is at least somewhat enthusiastic has dropped from 77 percent in August to 64 percent today, while the percentage of Democrats who are very enthusiastic has dropped nine points – from 47 percent to 38 percent.

What does that mean? Next paragraph:

More specifically, Trump supporters are more excited about voting than Clinton’s supporters are. Forty-five percent of Trump voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 36 percent of Clinton backers who feel that way. [Underline added.]

What else? If you don’t think carefully about the gender gap, you would think that all women love Clinton and dislike Trump. But just as almost all black men are supporting Clinton (as they traditionally support all Democratic presidential candidates), so, too, do almost all black women.

But Clinton is ahead of Trump by just one point (46% to 45%) among white women, according to the NYTimes/CBS News.

Moreover, as we talked about yesterday, Clinton’s advantage among younger voters is far less than Obama’s was, both because she is personally unpopular with Millennials and because of the pull of Johnson and Green.

One other related point from a story by Chris Kahn of Reuters.

Nearly half of American adults are “very concerned” about two issues that have hounded Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign this year: her use of a private email server to conduct government business and donations to her family’s charitable foundation, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Wednesday.

What about the daily USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll? Trump’s lead is now 5.9 points, the largest advantage he has enjoyed since right after the Republican National Convention.

Editor’s note. As we about to post the stories for the day, I learned that Trump’s lead in Colorado, which was two points yesterday, is now up to 4 points. Emerson College also conducted a national poll which finds Trump up, 43% to 41%.

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Categories: Politics