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Trump ahead in Los Angeles Times daily poll, trails by only two in NBC News survey

by | Sep 13, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

donaldtrumpmikepence84A quick post on the latest presidential polls.

After dipping in the daily LA Times/USC Dornsife tracking poll, Donald Trump is now leading Hillary Clinton by 3 points–45.8% to 42.8%. That is a +4.4% jump since September 11.

Trump has also cut in half the four-point margin Clinton enjoyed in the NBC News|SurveyMonkey survey. She now leads 48% to 44%, according to NBC News’s Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski, and Stephanie Psyllos .

However, while accurate, this is misleading in two ways . The poll is of registered voters. As the November 8 election approaches, the survey should be of likely voters.

Worse, when you include Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Green, Clinton leads by only 2 points, 42% to 40%, with Johnson gathering 11% and Green 4%.

But there is interesting context and insights in the NBC News story:

About five weeks ago, just after the Democratic convention, Clinton saw a sizable 10-point lead over Trump. In several battleground states, and nationally overall, the race has tightened considerably. One notable area where Trump has made up ground is among independents who do not lean toward the Democratic or Republican Party.

A few weeks ago, when Clinton was enjoying a double-digit lead over Trump, she also held a double-digit lead among independents. This week, she leads the Republican candidate by just 2 points among these voters — 38 percent to 36 percent. It is clear that non-partisans will play a significant role in deciding the ultimate winner of the presidential race in November.

Categories: Donald Trump