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Clinton’s advantage cut in half in both WaPost and Fox News polls

by | Oct 27, 2016

By Dave Andrusko

TrumpClinton843reFew if any non-partisans put stock in the ABC News poll of a few days ago that showed pro-abortion Hillary Clinton ahead of pro-life Donald Trump by 12 points. That’s why the two latest polls showing Clinton up by 6 points (Washington Post/ABC News) and 3 points (Fox News) restored some balance as we approach the November 8 elections.

The basic take is the Post story about the poll is that the 48% to 42% Clinton advantage “is little different than her 47-43 edge in a mid-October Post-ABC poll, but less than the double-digit leads in earlier waves of the tracking survey reported by ABC News through Monday.” The burden of the story is how partisans on both sides are anxious about the other candidate winning.

The Fox News poll is more interesting, showing Clinton with 44% and Trump with 41%. (By the way 3 points is within the margin of error.) Two weeks ago, Clinton’s margin (in a four-way race) was 6 points.

“Trump is helped by increased backing among independents and greater strength of support: 68 percent of those backing Trump support him ‘strongly, compared to 61 percent for Clinton,” writes Fox News’ Dana Blanton. And clearly the big change is among Independents.

Two weeks ago Trump was ahead by seven points (38% to 31%}, now his advantage has snowballed to 13 points (41% to 28%).

Blanton notes

In the four-way race, Trump leads among whites (+14 points) and men (+5), although his best groups remain white evangelical Christians (+56) and whites without a college degree (+28).

Clinton has commanding leads among blacks (+77 points), unmarried women (+27), voters under 30 (+18), and women (+10). First-time voters are also more likely to back her (+16).

The candidates garner almost equal backing among the party faithful: 83 percent of Democrats back Clinton, while 81 percent of Republicans support Trump.

Categories: Politics Polling