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Historic upsets? Maybe the greatest took place in 2016

by | Nov 3, 2017

By Dave Andrusko

This post was in the story queue yesterday but time got away from me. I apologize,

Each day I check various “This Day in History” sites. Here’s what I read on one site about what transpired on November 2, 1948:

1948: Truman defeats Dewey

In the greatest upset in presidential election history, Democratic incumbent Harry S. Truman defeats his Republican challenger, Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, by just over two million popular votes. In the days preceding the vote, political analysts and polls were so behind Dewey that on election night, long before all the votes were counted, the Chicago Tribune published an early edition with the banner headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.”

Why I mention this, even a day late, is obvious. Next Wednesday, November 8, 2017, will be the one year anniversary of an upset arguably more unexpected, more stunning than Truman’s.

I remember with perfect clarity the last few weeks preceding the Election Day, 2016. If I didn’t, there are reminders every day, mostly from Hillary Clinton bitterly rationalizing away her awful performance; other Democrats mad as hornets that the Democrat National Committee rigged the process to ensure that Clinton got the nomination; or reporters formerly wholly in the tank for Clinton who now fear she won’t go away and the party will end up in a full-scale internecine war.

Now-President Trump, we were told, had less than no chance. I wrote and I wrote and I wrote some more, not to predict his election but to point out what seemed to me to be obvious. The media narrative about his candidacy had been off since Day One, so why would anyone believe them or pollsters whom more and more people refuse to talk to?

Here’s what I wrote on November 3, 2016:

If there’s anything we can say for certain–besides that pro-life Donald Trump is closing fast on pro-abortion Hillary Clinton–it is that whatever we say today could easily be upended by developments later in the evening. Here’s the latest as of Thursday afternoon, five days before Election Day.

First and foremost, as we have posted a hundred times, any poll, no matter how scrupulously fair, is based on a projected turnout model. If fewer Clinton supporters vote on November 8 than the model suggests, or more Trump supporters than anticipated fulfill their civic duty (or both), all predictions could be as out of date as yesterday’s newspaper.

What did we learn in the last 20 hours or so? The latest surveys in some of “swing states,” one or more of which Trump must carry, are trending in his direction.

With rare exceptions, the Establishment Media blew off these signs. That ought to surprise no one.

We’ll talk in depth next week on the actual anniversary date. Let me just say here it is close to impossible to exaggerate (a) how badly the major media misread the election, and (b) how much of a difference it makes that our President is not Hillary Clinton but Donald Trump.

Categories: Politics
Tags: election