By Dave Andrusko

Irish pro-lifers insisted from the get-go that once they began their grassroots campaign to educate the public, support for a government proposal that would legalize abortion on demand through 12 weeks would begin to dissipate.

And that’s exactly what happened over the weekend in two separate polls conducted for two pro-abortion newspapers.

As SPUC summarized in the story we reposted, from an almost 2-1 margin in support of abortion on demand throughout the first twelve weeks, that margin in favor has dropped by 16 points nationwide in just two weeks.

Here are five takeaways from the polls taken for the Sunday Times and the Sunday Independent i.e. 

#1. According to the new Behaviour & Attitudes poll conducted for the Sunday Times

Backing for the 12-week regime proposed by the Oireachtas committee on the eighth amendment, and set to be put into legislation if the referendum succeeds, is considerably tighter at 43% in favour and 35% against. Almost one in four voters (22%) are undecided. Discounting the “don’t knows”, support for the proposal stands at 55% for versus 45% against.

The poll conducted for the Sunday Independent/Kantar Millward Brown has support at 48%.

#2. With respect to “abortion in distress scenarios such as rape, incest and fatal foetal abnormalities,” there is a majority. However, according to Philip Ryan of the Independent i.e.

[I]n a possibly ominous sign for repeal supporters, there has been a softening of support in these cases.

Two in five voters (40%) said the introduction of legislation to allow unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks is “about right”, while 8% said it does not go far enough.

However, a third of voters (33%) believe the proposal from the Oireachtas [Parliamentary] Committee on the Eighth Amendment goes “too far”. The findings also show one in five has yet to make up their mind on the question, meaning the referendum outcome is far from certain.

#3. “More than half (55%) said abortion should be allowed when there is a threat of a mother taking her own life,” Ryan writes. “However, this is down five points from 60% from a poll published in November 2015. Almost a quarter (23%) are against abortion in this scenario. Similarly, there was a five-point drop in support to 63% for abortion in cases where there is a medical risk to a woman’s health other than suicide.”

#4. I do not know enough about Republic of Ireland politics to know the ins and the outs of individual members. But Stephen O’Brien of the Sunday Times writes

The findings suggest the intervention of tanaiste [the deputy head of government] Simon Coveney at the beginning of February has had a significant impact on the abortion debate. Coveney surprised government colleagues by opposing draft legislation for the 12-week regime being prepared by Simon Harris, the health minister.

“I won’t support that, I can’t support that,” Coveney said. “I believe that there should be protection for the unborn right through pregnancy.”

#5. In summary, support for the 12-week governmental proposal has shrunk considerably. Even support for the “hard cases” is gradually losing is hold on the public. And 20% (at least) are yet to make up their minds.

The other leading question is that for now, there is solid public opinion support for repealing the 8th Amendment which recognizes equal rights for mothers and their unborn children. The 12 week proposal (or any other the government comes up with) would kick in only if the 8th Amendment is first repealed.