By Dave Andrusko
The headline to Laura Santhanam’s story read, “How has public opinion about abortion changed since Roe v. Wade?”.
Like virtually all the poll-related stories that have cropped up since Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement (tomorrow is his final day), the objective is to persuade the reader than any replacement—which turned out to be Judge Brett Kavanaugh—ought to know that the public loves, loves, just loves Roe v. Wade.
We’ve already talked about this many times. Only a tiny fraction of the public knows the breadth and depth of Roe (and its companion case Doe v. Bolton). 60+% would not say they do not want Roe overturned if they did knew that Roe/Doe legalized abortion effectively throughout all nine months of pregnancy.
Something we don’t mention enough. It’s not just that most people haven’t a clue how sweeping the abortion “liberty” actually is. Unless an explanation is embedded in the question, many people do not know that Roe/Doe is about abortion! Take this, for example.
On the 40th anniversary of the 1973 decision, Pew conducted a fascinating survey. Only 62% of the public knew that Roe dealt with abortion.
20% didn’t know what the case was about and 7% thought Roe was about school desegregation! (Reuters’ Mary Wisniewski added helpfully, “The question over whether the decision should be overturned was asked after it was defined to respondents.”)
Laura Santhanam’s story is partially helpful in one sense, even though that distinction is mangled. She correctly points out
But changing how the question is asked [from whether Roe should be overturned] results in a different answer. In 2017, 57 percent of Americans said abortion should remain legal all or most of the time, according to the latest polling from Pew Research Center. That’s compared to 40 percent of U.S. adults who think abortion should be illegal all or most of the time.
Notice she has switched from Gallup to Pew. However Pew’s numbers are very misleading because Pew does not make the careful distinctions Gallup does in asking about circumstances.
According to the latest Gallup survey, a majority (53%) say abortion should be legal in only a few (35%) circumstances or no circumstances (18%) while 43% of Americans say abortion should be legal in all (29%) circumstances or most (14%) circumstances.
One other important aspect. Before directly quoting Gregory Smith, associate director of research at Pew Research Center, Santhanam writes
Most states are sticking to their opinions when it comes to abortion. When Smith compared state responses in 2014 to those in 2007, he said 38 states showed an opinion shift of 5-percentage points or less.
“There are big differences in people’s attitudes about abortion from state to state,” Smith said.
Santhanam is 100% correct: “States are a critical battleground.”