NRL News

12 days out and “prognosticators” are already backpedaling about the “Blue Wave”

by | Oct 24, 2018

By Dave Andrusko

Photo: Gage Skidmore

Just a quick aside. The Trump-hating New York Times has a feature it calls “The Conversation” where two opinion columnists talk about a series of topics once every other week. The chat Tuesday is—even by the Times’ standards—unhinged. The loathing for President Trump has short-circuited their brains.

Which in a sense is a positive. It means their powers of discernment are so warped by contempt they continue to delude themselves about both the meaning of President Trump’s election and the enormous impact of his campaigning for candidates.

What to say?

POLITICO wrote a story that appeared today under the headline, “Trump mines local news media for positive coverage: POTUS floods the zone with interviews surrounding his campaign rallies.”

Jason Schwartz and Christopher Cadelago write, “As the midterm elections approach, Trump is increasingly seeking out that treatment. His administration has lately been fixated on local markets, going to considerable lengths to stage-manage coverage of the president’s appearances with Republican candidates.” (Should Trump appear with Democratic candidates?)

No kidding? And the sun also comes out in the morning and rises in the east.

Schwartz and Cadelago in the end come to conclusions anyone who knows anything about electioneering already knew.

First, local media don’t have a long history of bashing any president. When he comes, it’s a win-win for the President and the outlet.

Second, “Trump aides and observers say the most notable aspect of his strategy in the closing days of the midterm campaign is just how traditional it is.” Duh, Part Two.

As much as POLITICO tries to make it sound as if President Obama did more (and better) when he was in office, the fact is Obama never drew the kinds of crowds Trump is. The enthusiasm is off the charts, which bodes well for picking up seats in the Senate and holding the House.

So what’s new since yesterday? For starters, a fascinating admission by, of all folks, the New York Times. The story, written by Patricia Cohen and Sydney Ember, is headlined, “What Could Hold Back a Democratic Wave? Economy, Confidence, Independence.”

No kidding? Lots of new jobs, confidence in the economy, and the willingness of voters to judge their local House of Representative member (or U.S. senator) on how they feel about them (demonstrating their “independence”) all mean that control of the House could be decided by a handful of races. And, of course, local issues are imperative.

The last item is what Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey describes thusly: “As we enter the final fortnight of the midterms, the traditional Backpedaling of Prognosticators has well and truly begun.” He cites the Associated Press and the Washington Post.

Here’s the AP lead:

Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats. …

There are signs that the Democrats’ position in the expanding House battlefield may actually be improving. Yet Republican candidates locked in tight races from New York to Nevada find themselves in stronger-than-expected positions because of a bump in President Donald Trump’s popularity, the aftermath of a divisive Supreme Court fight and the sudden focus on a caravan of Latin American immigrants seeking asylum at the U.S. border.

What about the Washington Post? “Republicans are starting to point to evidence — and some fresh numbers —that their chances of retaining the House majority when voters go the polls in 13 days may have slightly improved. And even some Democrats agree,” writes Jacqueline Alemany.

And as we noted on Monday: The tight numbers coincide with Trump’s approval rating among registered voters reaching an all-time high of 47 percent for his presidency.

  • Why that matters: The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter notes that Trump’s current approval ratings pretty much mirror the 2016 vote.
  • Walter suggests a different song to encapsulate the moment: The Talking Head’s “Same As It Ever Was.” For example, the president’s white, non-college educated, mostly male supporters now give him a 65 percent approval rating, according to the WSJ/NBC numbers, compared to 64 percent of the 2016 vote. Today, white college voters give Trump a 38 percent approval rating; and in 2016, they gave him 38 percent of the vote.
  • 2018 Trump is 2016 Trump….

Predictably, the full of themselves “prognosticators” are backpedaling but pro-lifers never have or will. From the get-go, they knew what was/is at stake in less than two weeks.

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