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Enthusiasm about November elections now just as high among Republicans as Democrats

by | Oct 4, 2018

Republican women more enthusiastic than Democrat women

By Dave Andrusko

Granted the obvious caveat—polling numbers will change multiple times between now and November 6—NPR reported Wednesday that “Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.”

Domenico Montanaro explained that “In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were ‘very important.’ Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.”

This goes along in tandem with responses to a different but obviously related question—“ If November’s election for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district.”

That Democrat advantage “has also been cut in half since last month,” according to Montanaro. “Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September.”

Back to enthusiasm levels. As is usually the case, there are internals that may prove to be far more important than the broad overview conclusions. For example,

While Democrats and Republicans are now equally enthusiastic about the midterms, the story is very different for key Democratic base groups and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats say the midterms are very important, that’s true of just 60 percent of people under 30, 61 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of independents.

In addition, men (75%) and women (76%) were virtually tied on how important they thought the November elections were.

But what about women along party lines? Among Democrat women, 79% thought November’s elections were “very important.”

However 83% of Republican women thought November’s elections were “very important,” Montanaro reported.

Finally, the importance of the November elections increased the older the demographic

45 to 59 ——– 80%

60 or older —- 86%

Categories: Polling