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What do our closing thoughts before the 2016 elections tell us about 2018?

by | Oct 30, 2018

By Dave Andrusko

I wrote my final post on the 2016 presidential elections on election day, the last of dozens and dozens of stories we ran about the titanic struggle between pro-life Donald Trump and pro-abortion Hillary Clinton.

We are a week out from the 2018 midterms, so is there anything from what I wrote on November 8, 2016 that is relevant to November 6, 2018? It could be ten, but how about just four items?

1. Contrary to all the conventional wisdom, the most accurate poll from prior election cycles showed Trump up by 2 points, 45% to 43%! Please remember that when [fill in the blank] polling outlet tells you the roof is falling in for pro-life Republicans and pro-abortion Democrats are winning everywhere!

I don’t pretend to know the outcome in the House and Senate. However, what I can say with utter certainty is that some/many polls and virtually all columnists from “mainstream” media outlets will do everything they can to discourage pro-lifers from voting. Attempting to “dampen” the turnout of your opponent is an ancient ploy.

2. I wrote in 2016

As NRL News Today has written ad infinitum, all polls are based on assumptions, most notably about turnout and how particular demographic groups will vote. If either is off by just a point or two in key states, all bets are off.

The enthusiasm level of both Democrats and Republican is said to be very high this year. While that may well be true in surveys, the real issue is (as it always is) who actually shows up at the polls, or has already voted by absentee ballot.

As we mentioned in “What is early balloting telling us about the 2018 midterms?,” the Washington Post made a huge to-do about absentee voting in one area in Central Florida. The implication of the story was that young, college-age Democrats were psyched to vote.

In fact, this was much ado about nothing. Talking about early voting (as of last Friday), The Tampa Bay Times, no friend of pro-life candidates, reported that of the slightly over 2,000,000 votes cast

43 percent were cast by Republicans (869,649) and 40 percent by Democrats (808,200). That’s a successful formula for Republicans in Florida, a deep purple state with a long history of tight elections and sluggish Democratic turnouts in midterms. …
The advantage that Democrats need in early voting to overcome a historical Republican advantage in voting by mail has disappeared. The first weekend of early voting in the largest counties will provide more telltale signs starting Saturday.

Moreover, Politico reported in a tweet that while ages 18 to 29 compose 17% of the registered voters in Florida, they’d only cast 5% of the ballots as of last Friday. By contrast those 65 and over represent 18.4% of the electorate but had cast 51.4% of the ballots!

That’s only one state but one with a hotly contested governor’s race and senatorial race.

3. I briefly alluded (which I should have emphasized) that then-candidate Trump had been everywhere the closing weeks of 2016. In 2018 now President Trump has been on the hustings in a great many states and undoubtedly will continue through election day. Nobody but nobody fires up the base like Trump.

And lastly

4. My closing request in 2016 was

To repeat, if you haven’t voted yet, be sure to get to your polling place in plenty of time.

We are a week out. If you can’t vote on November 6, vote early.

Before you vote, be sure to go to www.voteprolife.com and click on the menu “Pro-Life Candidates.” Click on your state for a downloadable list of pro-life gubernatorial and federal candidates.

For your state and local candidates, contact your state affiliate. You can find information for them at www.nrlc.org.

This is a monumentally important election. Please do your part, and be sure your pro-life friends do the same.

Categories: Politics Polling