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More encouraging numbers for President Trump in swing states

by | Nov 13, 2019

By Dave Andrusko

Pro-life President Donald Trump

On this day in 1789, “Founding Father Benjamin Franklin wrote what was probably his last great quote, a saying about the Constitution and life that became true about five months later,” writes the National Constitution Center. It is the final seven words that are immortal: “nothing is certain except death and taxes,” Franklin wrote to French scientist Jean-Baptiste Le Roy.

Nothing is/was more certain than that the Democrat Party—the Abortion Industry’s stalking horse—would attempt to impeach President Trump. As POLITICO put it this morning, “[House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and Democrats have bet their majority on impeaching the president less than a year from the election.” They’ve been trying to overturn the results of the 2016 presidential election even before the electors in each state officially cast their vote on December 19, 2016.

The impact of the impeachment proceedings aside, what do we know about the lay of the landscape roughly one year out?

We’ve discussed a recent two-part analysis of voters in the “swing states” which will likely decide the 2020 presidential election written by Nate Cohn of (can you believe it?) the New York Times. Without rehashing our own two posts, we can confidently say pro-abortion Democrats and their Major Media partners were bummed out.

As Cohn wrote, “the president’s lead among white, working-class voters nearly matches his decisive advantage from 2016. The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far. All the leading Democratic candidates trail in the precincts or counties that voted for Barack Obama and then flipped to Mr. Trump.” [My emphasis.]

What else? Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report looked at another analysis, this time from two Democrats. The nub of the examination by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin is that the Midwestern battleground states “should generally see a 2-point increase in the percent of white college graduates and minorities among eligible voters as well as a 2-point decline in the percent of white non-college eligible voters.”

But Walter shrewdly observes

Of course, that’s also a very risky bet to make. In fact, many argue that this ‘bet’ on demographics is what lost Clinton the election in 2016.

It also assumes that Trump maxed out his base in 2016, leaving few, if any, non-college white voters for the campaign to turn out. That’s a dangerous assumption to make, too. Unlike 2016 the Trump campaign has the money and the infrastructure to find, target and turn out each and every Trump-friendly voter. Hence the Trump campaigns huge digital ground game spending this early in the cycle.

Moreover, and this is very important, Walter writes

[M]y colleague David Wasserman has crunched the numbers and finds a lot of slack left in the white, non-college lane. In 2016, 81 percent of white men and women with college degrees turned out to vote compared with just 56 percent of non-college white men and 60 percent of non-college white women. [My underlining.]

Anything else? Granted it is from President Trump’s campaign, but here is the breakdown of the massive rally the President held last Friday in Mississippi.

16,432 voters identified

24% voted once or less in last 4 elections (12% in zero)

27% Democrat

20% Black

No matter what you read in the “Mainstream Media,” President Trump will likely do better this time around among Democrats and dramatically better among African-Americans.

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