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Looking ahead to November 3, remember what is transitory, never forget what is permanent

Apr 30, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

Just a reminder…There are 187days—6 months and a week—before the November 3 elections. What you always have to keep in mind in any contest is (1) who are the contestants (assuming a third party candidate doesn’t get in or has virtually no impact); and (2) what is transitory and what is more permanent?

As a backdrop, watching the Coronavirus Task Force briefings, you don’t have to be professor of media studies to see that the primary goal of an uncomfortably large number of reporters is to toss off questions that are so loaded it is almost impossible to answer and to goad pro-life President Trump into getting angry. (The two obviously go together.)

So, back to our two basics…

First, if you’ve watched pro-abortion former vice president Joe Biden over the last month or so—either in his dreadful podcasts or his bewildering and often incoherent answers at Monday’s “virtual” town hall meeting—it is not unfair to say that he has come a long way in the wrong direction since the debates that took place between multiple Democrats vying for their party’s presidential nomination. In his several presidential campaigns, not once has he shined. And Biden is not shining now.

President Trump is a throwback to another era when presidents went on to meet the public. His public rallies are electric. I only attended one in 2016 and the crowd was amped.

Second, Biden is currently enjoying leads in various polls. That is a fact, just as it is a fact that we are 187 days away from the election.

In the most recent Emerson poll, “Biden leads President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 48%-42%,” according to the Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard …

But regardless of whom they supported

“when voters overall were asked who they really think will win in November, it’s a Trump blowout, 57%-43%. …”

If you think about it, those conflicting numbers are truly astounding. Even more so, while Emerson pontificates about lots of other consideration, not a word about this gigantic discrepancy.

The other item that is not transitory but more permanent is enthusiasm. And, once again, President Trump enjoys an enormous advantage. [Underlining is mine.]

Nearly half of Joe Biden voters, 45%, said they were very or extremely excited to support Biden in the general election, compared to 64% of Trump voters that said they were very or extremely excited to support Trump in November. Nearly a quarter of Biden’s supporters, 26%, said they were not that excited, compared to 15% of Trump voters.

Ed Morrissey tells us, “That 19-point enthusiasm gap dwarfs the one between Clinton and Trump in 2016. A September 2016 CNN/ORC poll put the gap at 12 points.”

Moreover, “And it’s not just Emerson,” according to Morrissey.

Rasmussen Reports said today that a sky-high 60% are excited about a Biden-Trump matchup, far more than the 2016 Clinton-Trump battle. It found an 18-point enthusiasm gap between Republicans, of whom 75% are excited, and Democrats, who are at 57%.

What about Bernie Sanders’ supporters? Emerson tells us

Furthermore, 65% of those who voted for Senator Bernie Sanders in the primary season said they were not that excited for Biden.

And

51% of Bernie Sanders’s primary voters said they would likely consider supporting a third-party candidate.

[A YouGov survey “found more than half of Sanders supporters have an unfavorable view of Biden.”]

Anything else, 187 days out? Yes.

Morrissey reminds us

Polls matter, but turnout matters more. Voters who are not enthusiastic for a candidate don’t turn out as much, even in normal conditions. When the election will take place in the middle of a pandemic, enthusiasm matters much more. No one risks their health to cast a ballot for someone they’re only iffy about.

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