NRL News

The new Gallup poll on abortion and the November 3 elections

by | Jul 7, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

Earlier today, we posted an analysis of the latest survey on abortion conducted by Gallup. At “Gallup finds ever-increasing pro-life advantage among voters who base their vote solely on a candidate’s position on abortion,” I wrote about the advantage pro-life President Donald Trump enjoys over pro-abortion Joe Biden because 30% of pro-lifers will vote only for a pro-life candidate as opposed to 19% of pro-abortion voters who will vote only for a pro-abortion candidate.

It’s not necessary to state the obvious. President Trump was in excellent position to win a second term until the pandemic hit. Now, it’s a much tougher fight to win. However, if you are like me—and I suspect most pro-lifers are—that only makes an eventual win all the sweeter. A few thoughts.

*In any election, the caliber of your opposition is a major component. Aided by a compliant media, former Vice President has been able to escape virtually any scrutiny.  Even with that cushion, what is his favorability/unfavorability status?

If you use the rule of thumb of tossing out the most favorable for Biden (Fox News) and the least favorable (CNBC), of the other three polls conducted principally in May you find Biden at -2 [Economist/YouGov]; -4 [Quinnipiac]; and another -4 [Politico/Morning Consult]. Biden’s vulnerability, once he must actually face political combat, is considerable.

*As we all know, the election will be decided on a handful of swing states. Put aside what I believe is an absolute truism—the race will inevitably grow tighter for reasons we’ll discuss below—the current numbers in states like Florida are unfavorable but doable.

For example, the last two polls in Florida showed Biden and Trump tied and Biden up by five. In Pennsylvania, Biden up by five points in one, six in the other. The last two polls conducted in North Carolina have Biden up 7 in one poll, plus 1 in another.

Would you rather be ahead? Of course. But these are margins that can be overcome. 

*There’s the impact of last week’s headscratcher of a decision handed down by the Supreme Court. By a 5-4 vote, the justices in June Medical Services, LLC v. Russo rejected Louisiana’s law requiring abortionists to have admitting privileges at a hospital within 30 miles of where they abort babies in case of emergencies.

Half of pro-abortion sympathizers probably believe their own chortling prophecies—that pro-lifers will be discouraged and/or blame President Trump—while the other half cynically hopes to persuade pro-lifers that they ought to be discouraged and/or blame President Trump. Which illustrates, for the umpteenth time, how little our benighted opposition understands us.

Pro-lifers constitutionally (in both senses of the word) are unable to remain discouraged. Too many babies to save, too many hearts to soften, too many minds to awaken to injustice to waste time on discouragement.

Blame President Trump? For the swing vote of a justice he did not appoint? How does that follow? 

We look rather at a story NRL News Today ran last week—“Senate confirms Trump’s 200th appointment, cementing his impact on federal judiciary”—and remember that he has kept his promises to the pro-life community. If re-elected, Trump would continue to nominate men and women to the federal courts who understand and abide by the principle of judicial restraint and nominate only pro-life candidates to the Supreme Court. One other…

*Mr. Biden is buoyed by not having to be responsible for anything—other than criticizing—let alone responding to a global pandemic,  and is uplifted by a press corps that ignores all the signs he is not up to being President. Politically, he is also the beneficiary of an economy hamstrung by the quarantine.

But the quarantine is ever-so-gradually being relaxed. There are four months for winds to once again fill the sails of the greatest economy on the face of the earth. With greater prosperity, the public’s outlook on the future, always a significant variable, will markedly improve.

To return to where we started, there is a huge difference in the number of Americans who will vote based on a candidate’s pro-life position over the number who will pull the lever for a candidate because he or she is pro-abortion–the greatest differential ever.

Mark my words, don’t listen to the naysayers. Listen to your head and your heart and help our Movement carry the day for life over death.

Categories: Polling