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What we know three months out from the pivotal 2020 elections

by | Aug 3, 2020

By Dave Andrusko

Three months from today, we trust America will re-elect pro-life President Donald Trump. With 92 days (to be precise) to go, here are some important markers to keep in mind.

*The major media—virtually universally anti-Trump—will attempt to simultaneously gin up Democrat voters and depress turnout for the President Trump. This is a familiar strategy, as any of us who’ve been around a while know so well. A subset of this is to lecture/hector/scold us that single-issue pro-life voting is passé. That is recycled every election. Only the names have been changed to protect the guilty.

*We’re told by various flacks for former Democrat presidents that pro-abortion former Vice President Joe Biden’s choice of a VP is a two-day story unless he completely bungles it. (How he would “bungle it” varies by writer.)

CNN’s Joe Lockhart, who was one of Bill Clinton’s Press Secretaries, tells us, “Ultimately, the success of a VP pick comes down to these two factors: whether the two running mates share a genuine and comfortable partnership, and whether the VP reinforces the broad message about how the presidential candidate intends to govern.”

Think about that. Biden has pitched his camp in the furthest reaches of his party’s extreme wing yet counts on voters being duped into thinking he is Mr. Moderate. But none of the women (Biden has already announced his VP will be a woman) mentioned is a middle-of-the-packer. Any/all of them undercut his faux moderate “message.”

*President Trump is behind in the polls, including in most of the battleground states. Would it be preferable that he were ahead? Of course. But the President is bucking a pandemic, a near-economic shut down, and civil unrest and yet is still more than just competitive. He is in striking range in most of those states and that is before the scheduled three presidential debates. Speaking of which…

*As we discussed months ago, the pace is picking up on the idea that presidential debates are no longer needed, they a relic of a different time, Trump wouldn’t play fair, etc., etc., etc.

Of course, this is a transparently political move to protect Mr. Biden for reasons we needn’t dwell on. In the few times he has gone public, it has not gone well for him.

Which takes up back to his choice of a Vice President. Given Biden’s situation, that woman could well assume leadership, perhaps even very early in Biden’s presidency. Whom is chosen is far less about “reinforc[ing] the broad message about how the presidential candidate intends to govern,” than it is how the country feels about the second person on the ticket moving into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

One other thought

*Rasmussen Reports regularly gets hammered for producing numbers that are not as dire as most everyone else’s. But remember only one pollster (out of many) was more accurate in predicting the popular vote than Rasmussen in 2016. His daily poll is of likely voters is one major reason.

Here is the graph from today showing “Trump Approval Index History” going back to last Thursday

Be-all and end-all? Of course not. It simply reminds us that in all likelihood, the race between President Trump and former Vice President Biden is much, much closer than we’ve been led to believe.

Stay tuned. We will keep you updated.

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Categories: Donald Trump